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Precio de Ethereum Classic demuestra resistencia a pesar de ataques
La red Ethereum Classic sufrió no uno, sino tres ataques del 51%: el primero tuvo lugar el 1 de agosto, el segundo el 6 de agosto y el tercero el 29 de agosto, a pesar de ello los inversionistas se han mantenido firmes, mientras se anuncian medidas para fortalecer la red de esta criptomoneda. Te detallamos lo que viene sucediendo con esta cripto en la siguiente nota. https://preview.redd.it/t08my6c3u7m51.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcbe37b0b030f16e80458fc141db4db670f33ba8 Septiembre 9.- A pesar de tres “ataques del 51%”, el precio de Ethereum Classic ha demostrado una fuerte resistencia. Aunque ha bajado un poco su persistencia puede indicar que la seguridad no es una prioridad máxima para los inversores que buscan unirse a una carrera alcista en el mercado de cifrado. Sin embargo, algunos advierten que, a menos que mejore su cadena de bloques y se haga más segura, los ataques adicionales a Ethereum Classic podrían desencadenar una liquidación del mercado y provocar un colapso de su activo digital. Para la seguridad de una red blockchain, un "ataque del 51%" es tan malo se escucha. Es cuando una sola entidad obtiene el control de la mayor parte de la potencia informática de la red, lo que le permite desviar unidades adicionales de la moneda en lo que se conoce como doble gasto. Por lo tanto, sería lógico pensar que tres ataques exitosos del 51% en un mes contra la cadena de bloques Ethereum Classic podrían afectar la confianza de los inversores. Pero los precios del token ETC nativo del proyecto en realidad no se han visto afectados: una señal que los comerciantes podrían estar menos preocupados por las vulnerabilidades de seguridad que por una ganancia rápida en los mercados de criptomonedas en rápido movimiento. En el momento de la publicación, ethereum classic se cotiza a 5.06 USD, una caída de aproximadamente un 27% en los últimos 30 días, al mismo tiempo que bitcoin ha bajado un 15%.
Tres ataques del 51% en un mes
Para la cadena de bloques Ethereum Classic, los ataques del 51% han sido una amenaza durante mucho tiempo. A diferencia de Ethereum, del cual se bifurcó con fuerza, la red Ethereum Classic está comprometida con el algoritmo de consenso de Prueba de trabajo (PoW), que también es utilizado por Bitcoin. Para redes grandes como Bitcoin, un ataque del 51% es altamente costoso dada la enorme cantidad de poder computacional que requiere PoW para hacerlo con éxito. El hashrate de Ethereum Classic es mucho más pequeño, lo que lo hace mucho más vulnerable a este tipo de situaciones. Al cierre de esta edición, el hashrate de Ethereum Classic era de 1,668 terahash por segundo, mientras que el de Bitcoin estaba en 117,95 exashes por segundo, según BitInfoCharts.
¿Qué es Ethereum Classic?
Ethereum Classic es el producto de un Hard Fork después de que la red Ethereum se dividió de diferentes maneras tras un pirateo en 2016. La cadena de bloques basada en PoW ha estado persiguiendo a Ethereum, que ahora representa la criptomoneda número 2 por capitalización de mercado. Ethereum planea cambiar su algoritmo en algún momento del próximo año. En un tweet el 2 de septiembre, el fundador de Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, argumentó que el algoritmo de prueba de participación (PoS) planificado de Ethereum le da una ventaja "fundamental clave" sobre PoW. "En PoW, por otro lado, un atacante exitoso puede simplemente atacar una y otra vez, sin forma posible de eliminar su hardware sin eliminar el hardware de todos los demás". Durante el mes de agosto, la red Ethereum Classic sufrió no uno, sino tres ataques del 51%: el primero tuvo lugar el 1 de agosto, el segundo el 6 de agosto y el tercero el 29 de agosto. NiceHash, un corredor de hashpower, reconoció que su plataforma puede haber facilitado los recientes ataques del 51%, en una publicación de blog el 1 de septiembre, pero también concluyó que tales ataques no se pueden prevenir o mitigar en una “solución de prueba de trabajo verdaderamente descentralizada” "Lo único que se puede hacer es hacer que el precio de un ataque sea más alto que la recompensa del atacante", agregó la publicación. La red Ethereum Classic también sufrió un ataque del 51% a principios de 2019, lo que llevó al intercambio de cifrado Coinbase a detener todas las transacciones, retiros y depósitos de ETC en ese momento. James Wo, fundador de ETC Labs, la organización líder que respalda la red Ethereum Classic, dijo a través de un portavoz que su equipo ha estado tratando de mejorar la seguridad de la red el año pasado, incluida la expansión del equipo de desarrollo central de la red y la asociación con empresas. como Chainlink, Swarm y Bloq. La compañía anunció dos nuevas contrataciones el 3 de septiembre para el equipo de desarrollo central de ETC. "Estos desarrollos y asociaciones están trabajando para impulsar rápidamente el avance de ETC y garantizar un futuro brillante para la red", dijo Wo, quien agregó que el precio de ETC se ha mantenido "fuerte" incluso con los recientes ataques del 51%. De hecho, los ataques no han tenido un impacto significativo en sus precios, lo que generó una pregunta: ¿por qué alguien pondría dinero en un token cuando su seguridad no está garantizada? Un gran porcentaje de los titulares de ETC recibieron sus tokens involuntariamente después de la división de la cadena de Ethereum y, como resultado, el precio de ETC se ha mantenido estable durante los últimos años simplemente porque muchos titulares de ETC han ignorado tomar medidas. Ethereum Classic aborda el análisis de equilibrio. Solo 610 direcciones (0.03% del total) controlan el 86% de todo el Ethereum Classic. Tasa de referencia: 1 ETC = $ 5.10 “Muchas personas simplemente están sentadas y tal vez no necesariamente estén pensando en operar en ETC o no necesariamente monitoreando activamente su transición”, dijo Meltem Demirors, director de estrategia de CoinShares. "Porque muchas personas que tienen activos de un tenedor realmente no tienen ningún incentivo para venderlos a menos que el valor aumente drásticamente". Citando el hecho de que una gran cantidad de carteras Ethereum Classic han estado inactivas, Demirors dijo que algunos titulares de ETC pueden no ver el valor de vender o incluso reclamar su ETC.
Emet y Faswet responden son seguridad garantizada
Este análisis se hace necesario debido a la incertidumbre que se genera alrededor del mundo criptográfico y que suele simplificarse sosteniendo que las criptomonedas son activos que no tienen futuro. Como vemos, todo hace parte de un conjunto de acciones de un mercado que madura cada segundo. Donde las exigencias de los usuarios deben ser cubiertas por una respuesta sólida del mercado. De esta forma, tanto Emet como Faswet garantizan por medio de su plataforma a sus usuarios el cuidado de sus activos digitales y criptomonedas. Ingresa a Faswet y conoce la mejor forma de aprovechar tus criptos: https://faswet.com/es
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
[Researh] In 2017 bitcoin network consumed 5 TWh of energy, in 2018 – 29 TWh, in 2019 – 43 TWh. Banking industry consumes 74 TWh per year.
Electricity consumed by bitcoin network has been constantly and noticeably increasing. During the past years the consumption reached such big a scale, that it can be compared to electricity consumption of some countries, according to BlockchainAnalytics.pro research. The world’s first cryptocurrency is steadily becoming more popular and expensive every year. This motivates more individuals and companies to enter the mining business to earn a bitcoin share.
More miners, more efficient equipment
To validate a block of transactions and receive a reward, miners compete with each other by solving a deliberately complicated mathematical task, or puzzle. Those miners who own more computing power (hashrate) have more chances to win the competition. This incentivizes miners to buy more powerful equipment that consumes more electricity. At the same time, mining equipment efficiency is constantly improving, and with time less electricity is required to produce the same hashrate. This factor allows to slow down the increasing demand for electricity. For example, in 2016 Bitmain, world’s largest manufacturer of mining equipment, launched the legendary Antminer S9, which consumed 100 watts to produce one terahash per second, or 100 W/TH/s. The best modification of Antminer S15, released in 2018, consumed 57 W/TH/s. Currently, the most efficient Antminer S17 consumes only 40 W/TH/s. https://preview.redd.it/gh343l3p09j41.png?width=930&format=png&auto=webp&s=e350c1e7832e37c1e3c3aeac974428cca7f0f874 It is assumed that the market competition compels manufacturers to keep up with each other in developing more efficient hardware. If some manufacturer brings next-generation chips to market, other manufacturers start to produce chips with the same characteristics at about the same time. On the other hand, new miners are joining the network, thus increasing the hashrate. So the demand for electricity continues to grow. Also, it can be noticed later that the electricity consumption chart is similar to that of hashrate chart. https://preview.redd.it/3k32ci6q09j41.png?width=930&format=png&auto=webp&s=e70f600419bcbc9e7e82506b5f12bf4da6f00584
The incremental volume of electricity consumption is calculated by multiplying newly added hashrate by the best mining efficiency available at that moment. The sum of incremental volumes represents cumulative amount of electricity consumed by bitcoin network. The metric is expressed in terawatt-hours (TWh). To get annualized volume in terawatt-hours we multiply the consumption by 24 hours and 365 days. A 100-day moving average was applied to hashrate to make the final result less dependent on the short-term hashrate fluctuations. Assumptions, used in this study, are very conservative. It means that the results are in the lower limit of the range of possible volumes, and the actual electricity consumption can be higher. A detailed explanation and interactive charts are provided here: https://www.blockchainanalytics.pro/btc/electricity-consumption/ https://preview.redd.it/jol3703r09j41.png?width=929&format=png&auto=webp&s=252d4d67ff6882bb32ad63238537a41305719f05
Currently, annualized electricity consumption in bitcoin network is 57 TWh. To help readers get an idea of how much electricity the bitcoin network consumes, a comparison with some countries is provided alongside. Portugal consumes 49 TWh per year, Romania – 50 TWh, Czech Republic – 59 TWh. Some more numbers for comparison:
The future of buttcoin security and the fabled fee market.
Considering the recent events and premature "halving" before halving we got to see a glimpse of the future. Reminder - security of bitcoin blockchain is overwhelmingly paid for with block rewards. Fees are practically insignificant in comparison. This is temporary subsidy that is going to be significantly reduced in coming years if blockchain gods allow. Many blockchain bros (not all) hope that the coinbase reward (the block reward) will eventually be replaced with "healthy fee market" whatever it might be (and preferably sooner rather than later). Since bitcoin fans love their charts and predictions I decided to play along and examine the history of fee market and see if it teaches us anything. Let's take a look, shall we? As you can see, the history of fee market shows that the market....doesn't like fees, at all. It naturally gravitates towards spending less or waiting for better timing rather than spending more and outbidding each other at all costs ad infinitum. The only time a fee market strong enough to sustain the dwindling blockchain security happened was during the top of the bubble, the absolute climax of unsustainable, irrational, international mania when people spent 30 bucks on average and those more impatient even 50 bucks or more in a rush to the checkout line. Blockchain was humongously clogged. Historically it was a short lived aberration borne of massive fomo inducing hysteria that quickly illustrated just how slow and expesive the whole shebang is if it is actually used by the people and led to an embarrasing display that caused much disillusionment, confusion and disgust afterwards (some people had their transactions stuck for weeks or even months). So history and data teaches us people hate fee market and they avoid it when they can. And let's be frank, fees for anything suck, nobody likes them, nobody likes friction, people like FREE. The second thing blockchain bros love are divagations about game theoretic incentives that make the bitcoin blockchain work (selfish desires and actions, not altruism). So what human nature teaches us about the fee market? Well first of all people hate paying for shit and they prefer to follow the path of least resistance and cheap out whenever possible. I mean who doesn't like to save some money, right? This is consistent with observations of fee market, usually it results in self cleaning, self balancing act of organic clearing of the mempool after it becomes a bit too bloated. People who aren't in a huge rush decide to send their transactions later or set a low fee and simply wait for them to go through. Those who can pay, pay and come first and eventually the mempool cleans and every "hobo transaction" goes through anyway most of the time. This is also consistent with behavior of people who advise to follow the path of least resistance when responding to complaints about fees. It's just natural to us. The fee market is as of now a myth or a desired outcome supported by NOTHING and it is inconsistent with 10 years worth of behavioral data. You're dealing with humans, not robots so expecting you can engineer them to act against their selfish biases and observable behavioral patterns is about as smart as engineering plants with lysenkoism. The plants don't care about your belief system, they work according to their nature. So do humans. You can work within the framework you have or you can 'prax it out' and conjure scenarios disconnected from observable reality. Maybe I'm missing something critical, some untold secret or some secret weapon blockchain bros will deploy when the reward drops so much it becomes a serious concern but it seems to me fee market expectation (again, based on nothing) will result in a bitter disappointment. Some who never bothered to do some basic math believe this is a matter to be thinking about around 2140 or something like that when reward subsidy ends forever but the brutal nature of constant halvings rears its ugly head quite fast. Remember 2 halvings slash reward to a quarter. 3 halvings slash reward from 100% to mere 12.5% of whatever you started with. For example when price was 10k miners earned 1800 x 10k = 18 million as a whole. That was the security budget of the entire system. At current halved prices (say ~5k) and after next subsequent halving you will see de facto the quartering of a reward to a measly 900 x 5k = 4.5 million. That's 75% cut in the span of several months. Ouch. Look what happened to Litecoin hashrate, it's a harbinger of total devastation. Now even if the price rebounds you just kick the can down the road. In 2024 the reward is slashed to 450, in 2028 it goes to 225. At "reasonable" 10k price it outputs tiny 2.25 million respectively. And then it halves, and halves, and halves, and halves. If the fee market won't pick up and/or the price won't go to some unreal levels...yeah, you're gonna hear the "inflation" talk eventually bros. Prepare for it, this is the idea that talking heads who preached about unassailable 21m limit will entertain increasingly more often in the coming years. Maybe there will be paradigm shift and every remaining hardcore holdout who bought into initial unchangeable 21m limit propaganda will be shunned and gaslighted? You will see new civil wars over this, that's for sure. Ps. Yes, in case you wondered this is good for bitcoin ( I mean everything is).
Bitcoin Leads The Popularity Race, As Social Media Activity Spikes Post-Halving
Bitcoin Also Recorded 140 Times More Active Wallet Addresses Than Ripple The biggest cryptocurrency based on market capitalization, Bitcoin, is increasing its popularity after the halving event on May 12, 2020. However, the total amount of wallet addresses with a positive balance is still lower than those of the altcoin leader, Ethereum. Crypto analytics company Glassnode published a report, showing Bitcoin has three times more active addresses daily than Ethereum, while the difference between Bitcoin and Litecoin increased eleven times. Source: Glassnode Meanwhile, Bitcoin newcomers also increased, with the leader in cryptocurrencies recording almost five times more new addresses than on the Ethereum’s blockchain. In the day after the halving, almost 470,000 new addresses were registered on Bitcoin’s network, as opposed to “a mere” 90,000 addresses on Ethereum’s blockchain. Interestingly, addresses with positive balances of more than 0.1 BTC and 1 BTC spiked to an all-time high of 3,053,970 and 815,698 respectively, as of May 19. However, the increase in wallet addresses may not be an indicator of growth. It turns out, 95% of all Bitcoin addresses have no coins in them. Another interesting aspect is that the Bitcoin continues its rally against the US dollar. Increases in mining time were reported by numerous sources and are now being accredited to network`s hashrate changes. Source: Splunk Enterprise Ethereum, on the other hand, is also looking positive, despite the majority of ICO projects failed to withstand the 2018 crypto winter. Since 2019, Ethereum overtook Bitcoin’s leadership in the field of positive balance addresses. The ratio between active wallets to non-zero wallets on the networks of both Ethereum and Bitcoin sits at 3% and 0,8%, respectively. Currently, Ethereum’s network operate with over 10 million more non-zero wallets than Bitcoin. The data leads to diversification of crypto investors – small-scale crypto holders and investors prefer Ethereum’s network, while large-scale investors opt for joining Bitcoin’s bandwagon. Meanwhile, the social media activity in the day prior and after the May 11 halving spiked dramatically. Most of the social media mentions of the word “halving” and are related to Bitcoin. Social media giants like Facebook and Twitter recorded substantial increases in general crypto-related activity. Google also published a keyword chart, showing a spike in searches for “bitcoin halving”. Interestingly, crypto analytics noticed another type of peak, which is tied to mining times. The spike in mining times data suggests smaller miners and enthusiasts shutting down operations due to the reward cut and hash rate all-time highs. However, the shutdowns didn’t affect Bitcoin’s network in any way, despite some crypto experts’ warnings of instability due to the shutdowns.
Coinviva BTC-USD Hourly Chart The Bitcoin had rally last week that went from $8,600 to $9,722 before settling at around $9,500. It formed a lower high compared to the previous peak at $10,045 the week before, signaling a potential reversal of the bullish trend related to the Bitcoin halving event. If there is not enough buying power to push the BTC price above $10,000 next week, it could potentially test the support at $9,100 before bouncing back to the $9,200 to $9,600 range. Watch for an entry signal if the price breaks below the support level (lower Keltner band) as indicated in the hourly chart.
Review of the week:
Although Bitcoin‘s price has bounced back in this week after halving on Monday, Bitcoin network hashrate (the total computing power dedicated to mining blocks on the blockchain) has declined to 98 EH/s, compared 135 EH/s before Monday. The decline in the hashrate suggests some miners have scaled back or shut down operations following the halving of block rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, which makes returning a profit harder or impossible with older mining machines (depending on the price). The mean block interval time rose to 727 seconds or 12 minutes from 8.5 minutes in pre-halving period. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York said there’s going to be pressure for Bitcoin in the short term because the incentive is less for miners now to mine bitcoin and they will probably switch to more profitable cryptocurrencies. However, in a longer-term, with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus that’s being pumped into the global economy, there’s renewed interest from institutional traders looking for alternatives to modern government-backed currencies. A recent research paper examined the relationship between Bitcoin, global economic activity, equity markets, and foreign exchange markets, while also concluded that Bitcoin does not exhibit any significant relationship with economic activity (BDI), equity markets (DJIA) or the foreign exchange (USD-Euro, USD-Yen) markets in either bullish or bearish regimes. It suggested that Bitcoin may offer some hedging to diversification potential in the global portfolio investments. Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
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Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity
Decred has caught a burst of long overdue wind today. Below is my thesis on recent price action drivers and why I think Decred is insanely undervalued right now from an on-chain/blockchain mechanics perspective. This is an expansion on a tweet I put out here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1190349477120552961 Fundamentally, the project is one of the most undervalued assets in the market and I believe the largest information asymmetry next to Bitcoin. The smart money know this. They have been accumulating. Looking at the volume of DCR moving on-chain, we can see a significant amount of DCR moving in 2019 at the current support range. We know that DCR is always on the move due to tickets so when we see high volume nodes like this, it supports the notion of actual accumulation in addition to the usual transaction flow. We have seen similar growth in the median and mean transaction sizes throughout 2019. Larger wallets, larger DCR purchases. Update: Note how the 2019 volume node, if just looking at USD chart could be attributed to Dec-Apr period or the recent drawdown. However looking against the BTC chart confirms that the dominant accumulation has occurred during the recent period as the BTC price probes the lows. This is what I consider a high volume zone of support characterised by a large transfer of coins (miners selling, accumulating buyers). On-chain DCR volume profile plotted against price for BTC (black) and USD (blue) The recent price action drawdown in my opinion is a result of Miners going too hard to fast. ASICs were introduced in early 2018 and we see an explosion in PoW Difficulty. Mining is a leveraged play for DCR and in this case is unlike what occurred for BTC in that it was almost four years until ASICs were on the scene for Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoins naturally high early inflation had time to disperse before ASICs and serious hardware investment came online. ASICs are capital intensive, not hobbyist grade meaning coins mined must necessarily become coins sold. We can compare the insane growth in Decred mining since Jan 2018 against the market to see this on a relative scale. Mind you, this is a bullish signal. Miners are committing heavy capital to the Decred chain security. They have done their due diligence and have high conviction. That is not something to ignore. Full tweet on this here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1177650799050133504 Normalised difficulty growth (left) since Jan 2018 and (right) 2019 Year to Date As miners over-extend without support of price appreciation, they must sell more coins to pay bills. Eventually the weak miners have to capitulate and difficulty ribbon squeezes as mining equipment is switched off. We have seen this play out for Bitcoin where squeezing of the difficulty ribbon indicates a valuable period for accumulation. Willy Woo talks about this here https://woobull.com/introducing-the-difficulty-ribbon-the-best-times-to-buy-bitcoin/. What happens next is that the strong miners gain an increasing share of the hashrate. Their energy is thus rewarded with more DCR and so they can sell less of their income and Hodl more. This effectively begins to constrain supply rather than the oversaturation during capitulation. Over time this leads to a reversal in price action which further perpetuates the effect. Price of a scarce asset must appreciate with reduced circulating supply assuming demand relatively remains stable or increases. Decred total cumulative block subsidy paid (price x block reward DCR) and Difficulty ribbon This is actually very healthy forDecred. Coins are being distributed by miners en-mass right now, nullifying the risk of miners holding too high of a supply within the staking system leading to centralisation. I would argue that this distribution of coins is one of the most important and bullish signals long term. We know that miners stake as well and thus they are able to generate income on Hodled coins. I expect this to actually soften the degree of miner capitulation as they can turn off power whilst still generating income. For this reason, I do not suspect we will see photos of mountains of Decred ASICs being thrown out as we saw for Bitcoin in 2018. The machines are simply put on hold until price reverses to justify power consumption. This is a valuable business feasibility case for miners and a feature of long term sustainability in the chain security. Decred Resilience This is where the elegance of Decred resilience steps in. As miners slow, supply saturates, price drops. DCR Tickets become cheaper. Stakeholders step in and accumulation begins. The Ticket Price hit an ATH of 140+ DCR as Stakeholders begin accumulating and commit capital to secure the chain. The Hybrid PoW/PoS system works as a counter balance. When price is in a strong uptrend, stakeholders are provided an exit to capitalise on gains as miners have a strong case for expanding their operations (PoW dominant security). During price drawdowns, miners drop out and the cheap DCR stimulates Hodlers buying and locking capital which locks down available supply from attackers. An attack would thus drive price higher and the cycle repeats. As above, showing the total DCR locked in tickets hits an ATH as price drops due to miner capitulation PermabullNino made the observation that Decred functions as an elegant yet robust accounting system. His discussion on block subsidies are shown in the charts above and linked here https://medium.com/@permabullnino/decred-on-chain-a-look-at-block-subsidies-6f5180932c9b.Decred has a has past, present and future cash flows distributed to those who support it most. This puts Decred security in good hands- Miners 60%- Stakeholders 30%- Builders 10% Price is currently hovering around the PoW total subsidy paid (red line) and means miners are indeed feeling the squeeze as this is the cost basis of all DCR paid to date. Once you factor in overheads and capital costs, it makes sense we are seeing DCR supply distribution. The last time we saw price dip to this line was early in Decreds history and was followed by a rapid repricing. We now have three mechanisms at play which will act to constrain supply
Miners are distributing heavily but eventually will switch to hodling as the strong miners hash share grows.
Stakeholder are absorbing supply en mass and locking in tickets due to relatively cheap prices
Inflation rate is in a state of constant reduction
Scarcity My recent work looking at the Decred stock-to-flow model (which does exist and is convincing, contrary to what the Bitcoin maxi community may want to believe), suggests that DCR is in the oversold range. It has deviated by 1.5 standard deviations from the S2F model mean which is near identical to Bitcoin at 50% supply mined. Historically for Bitcoin and Decred, this has been an opportune period for accumulation. More on this discussion in my tweet here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1184159137564889089 Note that Decred, likely due to the smooth issuance and difference in market awareness, is less volatile than Bitcoin. The significant undervaluation of Bitcoin at 50% mined was due to the first 2012 halving where it was a very different and far smaller market. I would expect DCR to be repriced sooner rather than later as the smart money steps in having now developed Bitcoin hindsight. Standard deviations of DCR and BTC price from the respective stock-to-flow linear regression models As a final note, if we look at Decred and Bitcoin market valuations plotted against ratio of 21M coins issued, which normalises for coin age, we see a fascinating similarity in these coins trajectory. Bitcoin was worth $127M at 50% coins mined and Decred was worth $180M. Considering we are in a log scale market, this is practically the same. Decred has achieved this value both benefiting from market awareness and size, but also in the face of heavy (albeit generally ill-equipped) alt-coin competition, quite remarkable. Decred and Bitcoin Market and Realised Caps and S2F models plotted against ratio of 21M coins mined Given that Decred has such insanely strong fundamentals, has developed a convincing monetary premium in it's short life and traverses the same stock-to-flow path as Bitcoin, I believe there is immense value flying under the markets radar. The recent price action drawdown can reasonably be attributed to miners over-extending. However based on both prior Decred behaviour and drawing comparisons to Bitcoin history, there is a strong argument to be made that supply will soon be constrained on multiple fronts and the current value is both highly undervalued and being absorbed by the smart money. Feedback, counter-points and discussions welcome. Cheers, CM.
The crypto market is so manipulated it's astonishing. We need adoption, adoption, adoption TODAY.
Nothing new, we've been saying it for ages, but since I started learning trading a few months ago, spotting it is much easier. For example, take this recent price move: Alts had been rising for the last day or so, with some like BCH rising up to ~11% versus BTC (BCHBTC +11%) - many others likewise. Now, if you have a coin worth, let's say, 0.007 BTC and 70$ in terms of USD, if BTC, being the main trading pair of the market, loses 30% of its USD value and goes from $10000 to $7000, your coin worth 0.007 BTC would lose 30% USD value too, in our example going from $70 to $49. What we just witnessed was pure manipulation. BTC dropped from ~$10600 to ~$10000 losing 6% USD value in an hour, while ALL alts lost 10-15% USD value, something totally illogical: ALL alts just lost 4-5% of their ALTBTC pair value at the same time. The logical thing to happen if every alt is being sold for BTC would be for BTCUSD to rise, since all alts (each with its USD price) being exchanged into BTC pumps BTC price and bitcoin dominance %.
What just happened was EVERY ALT/BTC pair was ~4% sold simultaneously into BTC AND BTCUSD price not rising but tanking 6%, a clear sign of an orchestrated cryptomarket dump with market cap losing billions (into a “stablecoin” most likely). Clearly, there is some algorithm controlling the whole crypto market with endless funds (coins) dictating what the market does, selling everything at the same time and so on. This is no group of individual trader whales, this is some huge power bigger than CME or a country, and most likely the one controlling Tether.
Tether was engineered and created as a tool to suppress the growth of cryptocurrencies. It’s not even hidden; its very name is telling you it is the tool used to tether crypto to fiat (air). It works the following way:
Tether facilitates the pump of your coin of preference by allowing you to buy it with thin air, much like the same way a “receive 1000000 currency” cheat works in a video game. This was done to BTC after successfully taking over it [Blockstream successful social attack & takeover of Bitcoin, then derail the project so it no longer is a decentralized P2P currency for mankind]). By buying bags and bags of a coin with thin air, you get to dictate "what the market has decided", you control the main crypto trading pair and you get to dump the market later to suppress price growth of other coins (you dump BTCUSD 5% and you suppress any ALTUSD price around 5%).
Tether facilitates the dump of any coin of your choice by having allowed you to accumulate huge amounts of it. By being able to dictate the dynamics of the market and pump a coin's price by buying it with air or BTC bought with air, you drive FOMO investors to it, which increases its price and allows you to later market sell some of your bags into them at higher prices in order to accumulate more BTC and create a panic sell-off (this is done to ALL alts in cycles - check historic bitcoin dominance % and see the cycles). Likewise, you get to buy massive amounts of every coin at bottom levels with limit orders, avoiding pumping their price as much as possible), which later allows you to unload huge amounts of said coin at key moments if it is rising and you don’t want that to happen. Compare the BTCUSD daily chart to the BCHBTC one, compare the amount of wicks to the upside and think about if the BCH one seems organic to you.
This is done to each and every alt as necessary in order for your controlled coin to retain the #1 spot. ETH, BCH, whatever might challenge BTC. Tether is not something ran by some group of malicious individuals that have set up an offshore company to make a few hundreds of millions with a stablecoin fraud. This is an operation on a global scale that utilizes corrupt humans running companies (Bitfinex, nChain, etc.) as tools to suppress cryptocurrencies and to prevent the mass adoption of a decentralized, peer to peer currency from overthrowing fiat. The next logical question is what we do, and the answer is adoption. If you build a closed-loop economy with a coin and start pricing stuff in itself and not in fiat, you become immune to their fiat-value shenanigans. I'm talking about buying food, paying your rent, selling your labour and living exclusively off of a decentralized cryptocurrency. Obviously, at this point they would attempt other things, like a 51% attack with the hashrate they would have purchased with their monopoly money. This is something BCH is vulnerable to, but this beyond the scope of this already long enough post :)
Will BCH reach an all-time low exchange rate versus BTC in the next few months?
So BCH has been falling gradually again since last April's pump, but recently also breached a moving trendline that established the 2 lows after the bottom during Dec 2018. Let's see a few stats that make me believe BCH will reach an all-time low versus BTC. (Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#charts ) I checked the top 10 exchanges accounting for almost 60% of BCH's volume:
OEX BCH/USDT (20%!)
CoinBene BCHABC/USDT (10%!)
Excluding maybe OKEx all of these exchanges are known to fake their entire volume. Additionally, if we take out the 1st 2 exchanges we are down by 30% of the volume, in comparison, no exchange on BTC has more than a couple of % by market share. Another metric to watch is the number of transactions: (Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin%20cash-transactions.html ) This has risen to around 50k in the last few months, in comparison BCH usually did between 5k and 15k a few months ago. Sadly more than 50% of the transactions are known to be produced by a single address that still does this activity, you can watch it here: https://explorer.bitcoin.com/bch/address/1b1itzeSKYEKhdcthUSnNJ47Fx2U8Zwwn This means that "normal" transactions are not much more in numbers compared to the highs of some previous months. Hashrate: (Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-btc-bch.html ) BCH is constantly keeping a non-relevant hashrate in terms of the total SHA256 hashrate mining on the open market. Its current hashrate is down almost 50% from 1 year ago (~3.8E to 2E) and it also only accounts for 2.9% of BTC's entire hashrate currently. This is critical in terms of chain security especially since BCH's halving will come sooner compared to BTC's halving, mining block rewards will be less profitable if prices don't recover. In comparison, BTC has reached ATH in hashrate recently while still nowhere near ATH in price. Holders: Bitmain (previously led by Jihan) has been known to accumulate near 1 million BCH. According to more recent numbers (and rumors), this holding has since become less, while Bitmain has fired almost all of their BCH developers and assigned Jihan a different role in the company. This still leaves a less pro-BCH Bitmain with a few hundred thousand BCH while the coin is becoming less liquid and less secure. A potential selling pressure coupled with the miner's selling pressure can make BCH fall way more. Currently, BCH only offers an alternative scaling solution to BTC without an existing network effect or a community that is backing the network with usage: Metrics show either a decline in most places or simply no impactful growth. There is nothing pointing at an actual rebound in long-term declining trend for the project that could lead to any sort of flippening. If you check the below 2 charts you will see that even though avg BTC transaction fees were on the rise from May this year BCH hardly got plus activity on its chain even though people here believe that users will migrate from BTC to BCH in case of high fees. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-bch.html#6m https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-bch.html#6m Note that the entity "spamming" the BCH chain started working from mid-April meaning that most extra transactions in May are coming from it. TLDR BCH general trend isn't turning upwards. Since BCH is against BTC on the market, if BTC rises in some of the important metrics BCH will fall.
Most volume from fake exchanges, 2 exchanges account for over 30% of the total vol
Number of transactions still small, most transactions from 1 or a few entities
Hashare less than a year ago, chain is not secure. BTC reached ATH in hashrate
Bitmain in trouble and still holding a large number of BCHs
BCH didn't really get boosted usage from higher BTC fees
Bitcoin (BTC) Transaction Count On The Rise: Bullish, Not Bearish Indicator
On-Chain Bitcoin Transaction Count “Inches Upward” Read this article on Dope ur Joy With another week, comes another insightful report from Diar, the crypto industry’s leading newsletter. In the publication’s most recent edition, which was released on Monday morning, Bitcoin (BTC), the so-called “king” of the crypto market, evidently remained a topic of focus.
Interestingly, Diar’s researchers touched on a lesser-known side of Bitcoin — the number on-chain transactions, which have seemingly waned and fallen to multi-year lows during 2018’s dismal bear market. Citing data compiled by Coinmetrics and Blockchain, Diar’s authors noted that the number of on-chain BTC transactions throughout Q3 has breached a quarterly year-to-date high, ousting Q1 by a relatively mere 70,000 transactions. https://preview.redd.it/4r9tb7t6prw11.jpg?width=922&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dcd69c1e2841bcf3038473589888958dddc8a4ed As seen in the chart above, the total number of BTC transactions in the past three months amounted to 20 million, which is up 13.6% from Q2’s 17.6 million, potentially indicating that consumers are finally finding reasons to transact BTC in their day-to-day yet again — a rather bullish sign in and of itself. Interestingly, since February, the number of BTC transactions has been on a near-continual uptrend, with month-over-month growth often surpassing 5%. This rising transaction volume could be potentially attributed to the Bitcoin Network’s dropping average transaction fee, which can be likely chalked up to the rise in adoption of Segwit-enabled addresses and the Lightning Network. But, as always, it isn’t all cut and dried. While transaction count is undoubtedly on the rise, the estimated U.S. dollar value and the number of BTC in all of the network’s transactions has fallen considerably, at -37% and -61% respectively. To put the latter figure into perspective, during Q1, $167 billion worth of BTC was shuttled through the blockchain, while Bitcoin “only” saw $65.38 billion worth of transactions in the past fiscal quarter. Adding fuel to the anti-Bitcoin flame, Diar also noted that the “king” could come under pressure in the digital payments realm due to the arrival of stablecoins, some of which have been backed by major platforms, like Coinbase and Circle, that have the capital and resources to “release man power for infrastructure development, marketing, merchant onboarding, lobbying, and compliance.” Regardless, as noted by Diar, the bottom line is that there have still been $315 billion in this year’s BTC-related transactions so far, which isn’t a sum to scoff at, to say the least.
The Growth Of Bitcoin’s Hashrate Slows
However, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows, so to speak, as additional data gathered by Diar also indicated that the Bitcoin Network’s growth cycle has somewhat stagnated… or at least on the mining front. After Bitcoin’s hashrate — the level of computing power actively processing blocks — established a record high in August, the mining subindustry has slowed, with hashrates now fluctuating between 40-60 exahashes/second. Per Diar, the “biggest intra-monthly swings” have just occurred, with Bitcoin’s hashrate figure starting November in a slight decline. Still, in spite of the stalling growth, the network’s hashrate hasn’t fallen drastically as of yet, indicating that bigwig miners still hold their belief in the value of “digital gold” and its future as a leading decentralized network. Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois via Unsplash Read more on Dope ur Joy blog
Friendly reminder that BCH is the only of the top 3 cryptocurrencies that can scale. Remember when price was at $300 and confidence was low just before price shot to parity ? that's where we are now in the cycle. Don't let your emotions influence your investments.
Bitcoin Core has already proven that it can not scale and their only short term solution is to let the mempool clog up and fees rise. Ethereum has been totally devastated by the first popular dapp game that is not even ressource-intensive compared to other games. Devs don't know what to do short term but to let the fees rise. Bitcoin Cash has rising transactions count since october and a LOT of room to grow even with the current blocksize. Another blocksize increase to 32MB is already considered in less than 6 months by coordinated dev teams for May 15, 2018. BCH transactions counts chart https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-bch.html#3m source for 32MB blocksize increase https://nchain.com/en/blog/bitcoin-cash-development-testing-accord/ Xapo is finally finished selling their users's BCH holdings, it is actually quite amazing that the BCHUSD price was rising during their selling window. Whales have been accumulating BCH at a cheap price knowing it will rise fast later. Here is a textbook example of an accumulation phase in trading, look how this is exactly the same as the current BCHUSD 3h chart: http://www.tischendorf.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/RDWR-Radware-Weekly-Chart-Price-Target.png BCH has been gaining momentum lately as exchanges add BCH pairs, the community has shown how powerful we are when acting in coordination to make exchanges list it under it's correct name, some crypto-ATM companies started to add BCH support, merchant adoption is on the rise and a lot of projects are under way now that bitcoin is free to grow again. All of this shows rising fundamentals while the price looks weak, which means the opportunity to buy into now before both realign with each other is huge. This is another $300 to $1500 kind of opportunity. More than anything, BCH is still the only version of bitcoin that can realize the dream of peer-to-peer electronic cash. This is the only true "support zone" any cryptocurrency can have: users using it in real day-to-day lives is what forces the price to stay above a certain level. We are slowly building the strongest support a cryptocurrency can have just like the early days of bitcoin, price was weak back then, but see how that worked out. u/maurinohose adds some very interesting points
How bitcoin cash will scale; Graphene for block-propagation, then the blocks can be 16GB or more when needed. The block-size becomes irrelevant, just as it was in the whitepaper. To minimize storage costs - any variant of rolling UTXO commitments. That is all. Also remember that any increase in block-size, like from 1MB to 8MB means the energy expended for PoW is now 8 times more effective, the energy/hashrate needed to make a block - doesnt matter if its making a 1MB or 16GB block, but bigger block means the energy used pays for more transactions. A 1GB block is 1 000 more energy-effecient than a legacy corechain.
Current Infographic Text - Please help with updates and ideas!
Here is the infographic text as it stands. There are things we need to update, and we could use a refresh. What would you like to see on the infographic? Please also refer to the infographic itself on the sidebar and comment below! If you'd rather propose updates on the document itself, please go here. The translations are there too, but I don't think we've ever really used an infographic in another language. Myriad A Coin For Everyone The Most Secure, Decentralized, Fairly Distributed Coin The Myriad Multi-PoW Blockchain uses 5 Hashing Algorithms Simultaneously Myriad can be mined with CPUs (including Android devices!), GPUs or ASICsT ANYONE can mine Myriad with whatever hardware they have available. Myriad is NOT Pre-Mined Everyone has an equal opportunity to obtain coins at the market rate = no hidden fortunes or controlling shares possessed by insiders Each Algorithm = 20% of total hashrate = EXCEPTIONAL RESISTANCE TO 51% ATTACKS Pie Chart 1 j 51% of Single Algo Coin (eg Bitcoin) = Network Corruption :( To execute a successful 51% attack against nearly all cryptocurrencies, an attacker only needs to coordinate 51% hashrate share of a single algorithm Pie Chart 2 51% of Single Myriad Algo = only 11% of total hashrate :) An attacker would need to control 51% o all 5 algorithms, or 100% of at least 3, to successfully execute a 51% attack against Myriad. Considering the diversity of hardware + miners on each algorithm, this proves exceptionally difficult to coordinate logistically, making Myriad the most 51% attack resistant coin out there. Difficulty = Weighted per Algorithm, per Block Miners compete equally for block rewards no matter what kind of hardware. Each algorithm creates coins at the same rate. ASICs don’t have an unfair advantage. Myriad = Multi-PoW Block Rewards given for contributing resources to the processing network, not for hoarding coins. Does not create systematic wealth inequality in the long term = FAIR 1 minute block processing time vs 10 minutes for Bitcoin = faster payment processing Block reward halving every 96 weeks Early mining period much longer than most coins = price remains intentionally low during initial distribution to allow more people to obtain coins at accessible prices PROJECTS IN THE WORKS New and improved wallets Wider acceptance by merchants and much more! For More Info, visit: www.myriadcoin.org Connect with us! (reddit snoot?) www.reddit.com/myriadcoin (facebook logo) themyriadplatform (twitter logo) @myriadcoin
Are 12-word Seeds for Bitcoin Private Keys Secure? (A Mathematical Adventure)
When you go to generate a private key, you usually generate a seed of at least 12 words (many wallets, including those discussed here, also allow 24 words to be used), but this set of words will be taken from a dictionary of varying size depending on the wallet software. If my research is correct, there are 2256 possible bitcoin private key combinations, or ~1077. Also:
Trezor has a dictionary size of 4096, so 409612, combinations, or ~1043
Electrum has a dictionary size of 1626, so 162612 combinations, or ~1038
Even if we use every current word in the english language (rounded up to a generous 200,000) we'd get ~1062
The important thing to remember is that every 1 less exponent to the 10th power means 1/10th as many combinations. Therefore, the following table shows the relative security of each dictionary compared to a purely randomly generated private key alone.
Relative Strength to All Combinations
1 / 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000
1 / 10000000000000000000000000000000000
1 / 1000000000000000
But does this matter? (The big question) This next part is where I'm not sure, because I'm about to compare bitcoin mining to generating random private numbers, and I don't know if it's a good comparison. But let's say the biggest mining pool (Antpool)'s entire strength (845 Petahash / sec) was dedicated to guessing private key seeds. Like a massive dictionary attack. Of course in the real world it would be slower because each wallet must be checked for balance.
845 PH/s = ~1018 guesses / sec
Let's divide that into the total combos to get the crack time of all combos:
Crack Time (s)
For scale, the age of the universe is 109 years. But remember, that would be to calculate ALL possible combinations. Let's look at one wallet example, which publishes that there are currently 16 million users of theirs. Let's just use that (~107) as the total number of private keys in-use for each wallet-dictionary configuration above (yes it's a very rough estimate). So let's estimate how long it would take the mining pool to correctly guess just ONE of these users' private key. The probability (P) of each guess will be users (U) 107 divided by the number of combinations (C). The inverse of this will be the number of guesses to get one right (G). Therefore Guesses divided by hashrate (H) is the Time (T) required for one correct guess. So...
P = U÷C G = 1÷P = C÷U T = G ÷ H ∴ Guess Time = (Combinations ÷ Users) ÷ Hashrate
If we want to make this useful in the future, we can create a general equation by substituting our calculation of combinations.
D = Dictionary Size N = Number of words in seed U = Users (Wallets using dictionary) H = Hashrate (guesses per second) Guess Time = ((D^N)/U)/H
Or: | Guess Time of One Key (in seconds) = DN ÷ (U×H) This general equation should be correct for all cases, if U and H can be accurately determined. Let's try this out with our examples from above to see if we are safe! Assuming: 12 words, 107 users, 1018 H/s
Time Per Correct Guess
~ 1 Million Years
~ 10 Billion Years
~ 1031 (10 thousand billion billion billion) years
Conclusions / TL;DR: I would say at this point in time, it is perfectly fine to use 12 seed words with a reasonably large dictionary. Remember, the above table is just for one single correct guess. We also assumed instant checking of wallets. Because the time is inversely proportional to the power, we might say the time to guess will halve every year (other variables being equal), which makes total sense. We can calculate how long until each configuration (of a particular # of words and dictionary size) will only take one second per guess, by doing [Time per guess in any "time unit" ÷ 2x = 1 "time unit"] and solving for X. At this rate, with a 1626 word dictionary, using 12 words, it will be around 40 years until 1 key can be guessed per second. Or 20 years until 1 Key per year. At which point you can just add a 13th word. Edit: Another good point: Adding a custom word to your seed is an excellent idea. It would instantly expand the dictionary to be as large as the entire english language, or, if it's not an english word, as large as all words in all languages. Making your seed unguessable if that dictionary is attacked. Edit 2: Lots of people are quick to pounce and say that the hash rate I use as a guessing speed is wrong (which I said right off the bat), or that the seed-words are used differently than what I said, having to do with entropy. This whole post is a oversimplified, theoretical, very rough guess, where even if it was exactly correct it wouldn't have drawn a different conclusion. The guess-rate I chose would obviously be much much slower in reality, so this would be a worst-case scenario.
I hate my Fucking Mining Rig - Short Story of my mining adventure (Don't really hate it)
Wanted to write a short write up on my journey of Crypto mining for some of the newer people and people who want to get into it. Not trying to discourage anyone from starting, but want to show the progression of a newbie. So I am a good with computers and learned of Bitcoin when it was about $7 a coin. Laughed at the idea of some computer doing some math and getting some BS currency. Million dollar mistake on my part, but hindsight is always 20/20. Anyways, Learned about ethereum in May. Bought some at around $180 and bought all the way up to $330. Now to the mining rig. Ran all of the calculations and with a 180 hashrate and 900 watts I was gonna get 6-7 Eth per month. Shit was gonna be profitable in under 3 months. I was gonna be a fucking crypto allstar and be rich as fuck! Bought all of my parts literally the day before they were nonexistent. Literally bought the last RX480's from Amazon. Here is a list of my parts. Asrock board Pentium dual core processor 4 Gb of ram 128 gb SSD 1200 watt Rosewill PSU 6 Sata to Molex PCI Risers (Junk) 6 RX480's - 2 Asus Strix, 4 Gigabyte Total cost - Roughly $2,500 (Pennies compared to my future ROI) Please keep in mind that I am not posting every single miner issue that I ran into such as fucking with Wattman for a few weeks before learning about Trixx and Afterburner. I've built computers before, so that part wasn't hard. Set everything up and get windows 10 running. Problem 1 - Computer doesn't see all of the cards. Had to run the drivers a few times and tweak some shit, but got all 6 cards seen. Miner hurdle (See what I did there) but off to the races. Let's get this bitch running so I can begin planning my retirement. Get Claymore running, Got Trixx to overclock. Ran my cards at -96, 1200, 2200 fans at 85% (Cause I'm cool like that.) Major stability issues from the start. 1 card (Asus) would crash all the time. Didn't know about the watch dog feature in claymore that would restart my rig when a card crashed. Great feature but my computer would go into this state of having power, but not loading the operating system. Even if it did restart, most of the time claymore would get stuck right before setting the dag's and would just lock up. (Claymore program is awesome by the way, this was my rigs fault) Could not get this fucking Asus card to stop crashing, even on stock settings. Sent the bitch back RMA style. Asus said something was wrong and sent me a new one. Awesome, lets get this bitch running. I need to start looking at sick houses in Costa Rica to move to once I am rich as Fuck! New card makes things better for a few days. Not 100% stable but better. Go to vegas for a driving thing (Race cars - Future rich guy stuff) and this mechanical demon starts crashing every few hours. Luckily I had Google remote desktop installed so I could log on and restart it or change settings in Trixx. Had to have my GF unplug it and plug it in a few times. Get back home, fuck with this thing but still random crashes on random cards. Decide it is the PCI risers. Contact seller who will send me some more for free. Slow boat from china took two weeks to get them. They arrive but still some of them are bad. Can't seem to piece together 6 good ones. Did some research online (Ethereum Forum and Reddit) and decided to get some new style of risers V007 6 Pin to Sata ($70) and they take a month to get here. Plug them all in and they seem to be working much better. Decent stability, But I ain't got time for fucking stock bios. Let's ramp these bitches up and get 32 MHs per card at 600 watts from the wall! Actually flashing the bios was pretty easy. Thank you 6 pound 9 ounce baby jesus! Long story short had some major stability issues and bounced around with some different timing straps before finding the right ones. (Uber 3.1 for Samsung memory) So now that we've got some good hash speeds and decent stability let's ramp this private ATM up a little bit by dual mining some Decred. Get dual mining up and running. go to sleep. Wake up the next morning expecting to see myself on the top 100 forbes list. look at my mining rig stats on my phone and see that it died roughly and hour after I went to sleep. Walked toward my rig on the red carpet I had just installed and saw that it was off. Flicked on the light to check it out. No light, WTF? Well I'll be god damned, no power in this whole fucking room. Checked my breakers and sure enough this metal motherfucker tripped my breaker. No worries though. I'm smart as fuck. I'll just undervolt the shit out of it to get the power down. No way in hell I am just mining ether. I'm going balls to the wall! As you can expect I had many days of stability issues and tripped breakers. But fuck it, I have homeowners insurance. Burning it to the ground will be covered. (Didn't happen) My surge protector must be maxed out. Let's buy a bigger one ($25). Same issues. Fuck Decred, I'll mine SIA, less power. Damn I'm smart. Rig is more stable with Sia and no tripped breakers. Family medical emergency, have to fly north for a few days. But my rig has been fairly stable and I've got remote desktop if anything goes wrong. Arrive at airport, check mining stats, rig is down. No worries remote desktop. FUCK, not responsive, no way to remote into the rig and no way to remotely power it off and on. Lost 4 days of mining. But no worries the difficulty is only, Holy shit that's high! But the price of Ether will make up for it. Ether crashed to the $200's. Oh well, maybe a 10 room house in Costa instead of a 12. No sweat. Get back to my house and this whore of a machine is just sitting there in a computer coma. It's on but it's not. LED lights glaring at me like "Fuck you human, I ain't doing your stupid math problems!" Fuck you machine, I'm your master. You will do my math problems and you will fucking like it. My AMD Drivers seem to disappear and the computer goes into a coma like state. Someone on Reddit suggested using the 16.9.2 drivers. Installed and they worked better. Still random crashing. This shitty PSU must be maxed out. Fuck you PSU, I'm getting you a little brother (EVGA 750 gold $120.) What do you mean you have to jerry rig a second PSU so it starts without being connected to a motherboard? 2 more hours of my life wasted. But finally some stability. On my way to being fucking rich. I start looking at people in bentley's and can only laugh. You dumb fuck, I'm gonna be way richer then you. Gonna get a Bugatti for each day of the week. Damn this difficulty is a bitch. Fuck you Genesis Mining and your pallets of GPU's. You're killing me smalls! But anyway, on my way to rolling around in my fuck you money! Fuck you dag file 135, you're killing my future millions. Fuck you dag 138, you dropped me to 167 mhs. Thank god AMD was there to save my ass with their dope ass blockchain drivers. download, run DDU, Restart, install drivers, restart, run pixel patch, restart. Perfect, I'm in the money now! I can taste the caviar and champagne already. Now my cards only run 4 Mhs each. WTF? Try a bunch of the other new drivers. Same shit. Roll back to 16.9.2 and they run fine, just at 167 instead of 180. Someone on a forum said he had the same issue and did a fresh install of windows 10 and it worked. So I'll just reformat my SSD (Windows wouldn't do a fresh install within the operating system. Fuck you Bill Gates! Gonna buy you once I get this thing running at 180.) Format SSD, plug back in, throw in my gangster ass boot USB drive. Ramdisk error. Fuck you Bill Gates! Reformat SSD multiple times, lots of forum reading. Install windows from another computer through command prompt (I'm a coder now as well.) This shit has got to work, I did it in command prompt bitches! Same fucking error. Now down to an 8 bedroom house in Costa and only 6 Bugattis. Let's try unplugging my 6 cards and see if that works. Thank you 6 pound 9 ounce baby jesus. Windows installed. New drivers work and I'm back at 180! Raking in the cash now. With those speeds my Asus cards crashed. Had to dial down the hashrate to 177.5 for them to be stable. So now going to use some commands in claymore to run the Asus cards at lower speeds while letting my other cards mine harder. I wrote this to let people know that mining isn't all Bugatti's and caviar. These machines are fickle little cunts that do what they want. No system is the same. So when you post on a forum, people will give you advice on what may work. But what works for them, may not work on your rig. In the end it's up to you to figure it out. I have spent countless hours after work and on weekends working on this bitch. Hell I've probably spent a few hours just staring at it and thinking about all of the ways I could destroy it slowly. While I love Etheruem and do value the knowledge gained, I would have made more money just buying Eth and holding. The guys you see on youtube building sick rigs with crazy specs have been at it for a while. They have worked through the process and know how to solve all of the problems. You have not and will have to work them out on your own. My whore of a rig will pay for itself soon. But I would suggest that if you want to start building a new mining rig. Check the difficulty chart and make sure you have tons of free time to fuck with it. I'd post my wallet address for donations since I just saved you $2,600. But I am afraid hackers will steal my monies :) Hope you enjoyed my mining life story from the past few months.
Open Financial System Open financial system is defined as being available to everyone and not controlled by a single entity.
✔︎ Pretty easy
Innovation or Efficiency Gains New or improved technology which helps solve a problem, creates a new market, addresses an unmet market need, or creates value for network participants.
✔︎ Again, pretty easy, Nimiq is bringing a huge leap forward in terms of accessibility and integration of cryptocurrencies.
Economic Freedom A measure of how easy it is for members of a society to participate in the economy. The technology enables individuals to have more control over their own wealth and property, or the freedom to consume, produce, invest, or work as they choose.
✔︎ Basic requirement of any real cryptocurrency, easily fulfilled by Nimiq.
Equality of Opportunity This technology is accessible to use by anyone with a smartphone or access to the internet. It contributes to the broader mission of building the on-ramps to Finance 2.0.
✔︎ Nimiq is the most accessible crypto on the market right now, you don't even have to install something to begin using it or mining it.
Decentralization The network is public, decentralized, and enables trustless consensus.
〜 The architecture of Nimiq is decentralized however the hashrate is clearly not right now.
Security & Code Assessment of engineering and product quality.
✔︎ Nimiq team has done everything it could to ensure the quality control of the code.
Source Code Open-source code, well-documented peer-review, and testing by contributors separate from the initial development team on GitHub, etc.
〜 Of course Nimiq is open-source but the documentation is still weak, the good thing is that it's being redone.
Prototype There is a working alpha or beta product on a testnet or mainnet.
✔︎ Well, the Nimiq Network is live.
Security & Code Demonstrable record of responding to and improving the code after a disclosure of vulnerability, and a robust bug bounty program or third party security audit.
Team Assessment of short-term operating expectations and decision making.
✔︎ You can even see them on video hehe.
Founders and Leadership Able to articulate vision, strategy, use cases or drive developmental progress. Has a track record of demonstrable success or experience. If information is available, Coinbase will apply "know your client" standards to publicly visible founders or leaders.
✔︎ The profiles of the team are all known and easily checked.
Engineering Assessment of the engineering team and their track record of setting and achieving deadlines.
✔︎ They released the product which is a damn good track record in a sector full of vaporwares.
Business & Operations History of interacting with the community, setting a reasonable budget and managing funds, and achieving project milestones. Thoughtful cash management is a key driver of the project's long term viability.
✔︎ There has been some "lean" periods in terms of communication but overall the team has never stopped interacting with us. When it comes to cash management the dev team should be a model for everyone else with its last transparency report.
Specialized Knowledge and Key People The project leadership is not highly centralized or dependent on a small number of key persons. Specialized knowledge in this field is not limited to a small group of people.
〜 Let's be honest: it is right now, that said the project protocol isn't even 6 months old.
Governance Assessment of long-term operating expectations and decision making.
White Paper Justifies the use case for a decentralized network and outlines project goals from a business and technology perspective. While a white paper is important for understanding the project, it is not a requirement.
〜 There is the "high level" whitepaper of the ICO however it doesn't really explain in detail how Nimiq works.
Scalability Assessment of a network's potential barriers to scaling and ability to grow and handle user adoption.
✔︎ Like pretty much every project, that's what Robin is currently working on by the way.
Roadmap Clear timeline with stages of development, reasonable project milestones, or built-in development incentives.
✔︎ We should have the roadmap soon™️.
Network Operating Costs The barriers to scaling the network have been identified, or solutions have been proposed or discussed. The resource consumption costs for validators and miners are not the main deterrents to participation.
✔︎ Yes, the team has been considering second layer solutions like Lightning Network or Liquidity Network.
Practical Applications There are examples of real-world implementation or future practical applications.
Type of Blockchain The asset is a separate blockchain with a new architecture system and network, or it leverages an existing blockchain for synergies and network effects
Regulation Can Coinbase legally offer this asset?
✔︎ I'm not a lawyer but I guess it can
US Securities Law The asset is not classified as a security using Coinbase's Securities Law Framework.
〜 Hard to say, they have this checklist and the fact that some NIM were given against NET which were distributed through an ICO makes it kind of blurry
Compliance Obligations The asset would not affect Coinbase or Coinbase's ability to meet compliance obligations, which include Compliance Obligations, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) program and obligations under government licenses in any jurisdiction (e.g. Money Transmitter Licenses).
✔︎ Conversion from NET to NIM went through a KYC specifically for that.
Integrity & Reputational Risk Would listing the asset be inconsistent with Coinbase policy?
✔︎ I don't see why.
User Agreement The asset, network, application or fundamental nature of the project does not constitute a Prohibited Business under Appendix 1 of the user Agreement.
✔︎ I read it and it's doesn't.
Liquidity Standards How liquid is this asset?
〜 Weak liquidity right now.
Global Market Capitalization How does the market capitalization compare to the total market capitalizations of other assets?
〜 Weak capitalization.
Asset Velocity Trade velocity, or turnover, is a significant part of market capitalization. This is a measure of how easily the asset can be converted to another asset.
〜 Again, weak velocity.
Circulation For service or work tokens, new supply is created through consensus protocols. If the supply is capped, then a material amount of the total tokens should be available to the public.
✔︎ It's available.
Global Distribution Where is this asset available to trade?
Total # of Exchanges The number of exchanges that support the asset.
Geographic Distribution The asset is not limited to a single geographic region and is available to trade on decentralized exchanges.
Community Activity Dedicated forums are available where developers, supporters, users, and founders can interact and build a community and offer transparency into the project. The team provides regular updates or is responsive to feedback.
✔︎ Yes it has.
External Stakeholders There are investments from venture firms or hedge funds which have experience working with crypto companies or projects. The project has corporate partnerships, joint ventures, or dedicated consortiums.
〜 It doesn't as far as I know.
Change in Market Capitalization The market capitalization has grown after the network has activated, demonstrating increased demand for the asset after the project's launch.
〜 Sadly not.
Nodes Growing # of nodes on the underlying blockchain. The project has a globally distributed node network, meaning operating nodes are not contained in a single country or geographic region.
Economic Incentives Are the economic structures designed to incentivize all parties to act in the best interest of the network?
✔︎ It's a PoW coin so yes.
Type of Token It is a service, work, or hybrid token. Tokens backed by fiat or other physical assets are categorized as US securities and will not be considered at this time.
✔︎ It's not backed by anything but the work done to generate them.
Token Utility There is utility from obtaining, holding, participating, or spending the token. The team identifies a clear and compelling reason for the native digital asset to exist (i.e. the main purpose is not fundraising).
✔︎ Nimiq is a general payment protocol.
Inflation (Money Supply) There is an algorithmically programmed inflation rate which incentivizes security and network effects. Or, if the total supply is capped, then a majority of the tokens should be available for trade when the network launches.
Rewards and Penalties There are mechanisms (such as transaction fees) which incentivize miners, validators, and other participants to exhibit 'good' behavior. Conversely, there are mechanisms which deter 'bad' behavior.
Security There is a focus on stringent security protocols and best practices to limit scams, hacks, and theft of funds.
✔︎ The smart-contract of the ICO was audited and they didn't lose the fund yet so I guess it's secure haha.
Participation Equality Best efforts by the team to allow a fair distribution of tokens (i.e. setting initial individual purchase caps to limit the risk of small number of investors from taking a majority of the supply).
✔︎ The number of NIM distributed through NET is only 7% in any case.
Team Ownership The ownership stake retained by the team is a minority stake. There should be a lock-up period and reasonable vesting schedule to ensure the team is economically incentivized to improve the network into the future.
Transparency The team should be available and responsive to questions or feedback about the product, token sale, or use of funds across multiple forums.
✔︎ See the transparency report.
Total Supply The team should sell a fixed percentage of the total supply, and participants should know the percentage of total supply that their purchase represents, or have a clear understanding of the inflation rate.
✔︎ All informations are available freely online.
Ethics or Code of Conduct White paper or project website should have an ethical or professional code of conduct.
Hashrate: went from 54 to 76 PH/s, the low was 50 and the new all-time high is 100 PH/s. BeePool share rose to ~50% while F2Pool shrank to 30%, followed by coinmine.pl at 5% and Luxor at 3%. Staking: 30-day average ticket price is 95.6 DCR (+3.0) as of Sep 3. During the month, ticket price fluctuated between a low of 92.2 and high of 100.5 DCR. Locked DCR represented between 3.8 and 3.9 million or 46.3-46.9% of the supply. Nodes: there are 217 public listening and 281 normal nodes per dcred.eu. Version distribution: 2% at v1.4.0(pre) (dev builds), 5% on v1.3.0 (RC1), 62% on v1.2.0 (-5%), 22% on v1.1.2 (-2%), 6% on v1.1.0 (-1%). Almost 69% of nodes are v.1.2.0 and higher and support client filters. Data snapshot of Aug 31.
Obelisk posted 3 email updates in August. DCR1 units are reportedly shipping with 1 TH/s hashrate and will be upgraded with firmware to 1.5 TH/s. Batch 1 customers will receive compensation for missed shipment dates, but only after Batch 5 ships. Batch 2-5 customers will be receiving the updated slim design. Innosilicon announced the new D9+ DecredMaster: 2.8 TH/s at 1,230 W priced $1,499. Specified shipping date was Aug 10-15. FFMiner DS19 claims 3.1 TH/s for Blake256R14 at 680 W and simultaneously 1.55 TH/s for Blake2B at 410 W, the price is $1,299. Shipping Aug 20-25. Another newly noticed miner offer is this unit that does 46 TH/s at 2,150 W at the price of $4,720. It is shipping Nov 2018 and the stats look very close to Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (which has now a page on asicminervalue).
www.d1pool.com joined the list of stakepools for a total of 16. Australian CoinTreeadded DCR trading. The platform supports fiat, there are some limitations during the upgrade to a new system but also no fees in the "Early access mode". On a related note, CoinTree is working on a feature to pay household bills with cryptocurrencies it supports. Three new OTC desks were added to exchanges page at decred.org. Two mobile wallets integrated Decred:
Coinomiadded Decred to their Android and iOS wallets. In addition to the Apple App Store and Google Play you can download the APK directly. Coinomi features an integrated cryptocurrency exchange and is the first company to offer a mobile Decred wallet.
Reminder: do your best to understand the security and privacy model before using any wallet software. Points to consider: who controls the seed, does the wallet talk to the nodes directly or via middlemen, is it open source or not?
Bit Dialsannounced DCR support via GloBee at their bitdials.eu luxury boutique. Their separate supercar and classic car shop bitcars.eu also accepts DCR, either via GloBee or with manual invoicing in case of privacy concerns.
Targeted advertising report for August was posted by @timhebel. Facebook appeal is pending, some Google and Twitter campaigns were paused and some updated. Read more here. Contribution to the @decredproject Twitter account has evolved over the past few months. A #twitter_ops channel is being used on Matrix to collaboratively draft and execute project account tweets (including retweets). Anyone with an interest in contributing to the Twitter account can ask for an invitation to the channel and can start contributing content and ideas there for evaluation by the Twitter group. As a result, no minority or unilateral veto over tweets is possible. (from GitHub)
Meetup in Puebla City, Mexico, organized by @elian. (photo, slides, missed in July issue)
@joshuam discussed Decred and decentralized organizations with Craig Laundy, Federal Minister for Small Business, the Workplace, and Deregulation with the Australian Government, at @YBFVentures. (photos)
Meetup at @TheBlockCafe in Lisbon, Portugal. @mm presented "Decred 101 - Governance with Skin in the Game" and @moo31337 talked about Decred's 2018 roadmap. (photos: 123)
Meetup in Taipei, Taiwan. @morphymore made a short intro of Decred and noted: "After the talk, many have approached to tell me that they literally don’t hear of Decred until today, and are interested in finding out more about the merit of a hybrid consensus system.". Longer report here, some photos and a video are here.
@eSizeDave introduced Decred to the SILC Undergraduate Program students at @YBFVentures. (photo)
OKEx Global Meetup Tour in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. @joshuam gave a brief presentation covering the history of Decred, how the project functions, and the importance of governance. Afterwards he joined a panel discussion and spoke about Decred's incentives for long term viability. (video, video, photo)
Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto, Canada. @zubairzia0 noted: "Devs and the community were held in high regard for the people who knew about decred ... one positive thing I remember was someone defending us saying 'Decred does not need a booth', I believe that comment was reflective of the quality of projects being showcased at the conference.". (photo)
Meetup at @YBFVentures in Melbourne, Australia. @joshuam discussed Decred with Graham Stuart, U.K. Minister for International Trade. (news, photos)
Small meetup with Jackson Palmer in Melbourne, Australia. (photo)
Hawthorne Street Fair in Portland, USA. Raedah Group was out answering questions about crypto and Decred. (photos)
Blockchain APAC in Melbourne, Australia. @joshuam joined a panel discussion with reps from banking, university and ISO/TC 307. @eSizeDave reports: "This enterprise conference was indeed a whole lot better than I expected. The presentations were actually full of very worthwhile information from credible people, articulated aptly to a very government, academic, and corporate crowd, who genuinely took on board valuable insights. Good to know some of these key people are Decred holders and stakers as well. I got to use the entire day to speak directly with some of the most pivotal personalities in this particular populace. Ongoing relationships have been built and strengthened.". (photos: 123)
For those willing to help with the events:
BAB: Hey all, we are gearing up for conference season. I have a list of places we hope to attend but need to know who besides @joshuam and @Haon are willing to do public speaking, willing to work booths, or help out at them? You will need to be well versed on not just what is Decred, but the history of Decred etc... DM me if you are interested. (#event_planning) The Decred project is looking for ambassadors. If you are looking for a fun cryptocurrency to get involved in send me a DM or come talk to me on Decred slack. (@marco_peereboom, longer version here)
One private work channel was successfully migrated to Matrix.
Stylish room avatars were set.
@Haon has prepared a short guide to help new Matrix users get started and join the Decred rooms.
A thread was started to discuss changes to Decred jargon with the intent to make it more consistent and accessible to newcomers. The question whether changing "official" terminology requires stakeholder approval was touched in this thread and in #documentation.
Project fund transparency and constitution were extensively discussed on Reddit and in #general.
Pre-proposal to use Politeia to approve Politeia as a legitimate decision-making tool for Decred.
Reddit: substantive discussion about Decred cons; ecosystem fund; a thread about voter engagement, Politeia UX and trolling; idea of a social media system for Decred by @michae2xl; how profitable is the Obelisk DCR1. Chats: cross-chain trading via LN; plans for contractor management system, lower-level decision making and contractor privacy vs transparency for stakeholders; measuring dev activity; what if the network stalls, multiple implementations of Decred for more resilience, long term vision behind those extensive tests and accurate comments in the codebase; ideas for process for policy documents, hosting them in Pi and approving with ticket voting; about SPV wallet disk size, how compact filters work; odds of a wallet fetching a wrong block in SPV; new module system in Go; security of allowing Android app backups; why PoW algo change proposal must be specified in great detail; thoughts about NIPoPoWs and SPV; prerequisites for shipping SPV by default (continued); Decred vs Dash treasury and marketing expenses, spending other people's money; why Decred should not invade a country, DAO and nation states, entangling with nation state is poor resource allocation; how winning tickets are determined and attack vectors; Politeia proposal moderation, contractor clearance, the scale of proposals and decision delegation, initial Politeia vote to approve Politeia itself; chat systems, Matrix/Slack/Discord/RocketChat/Keybase (continued); overview of Korean exchanges; no breaking changes in vgo; why project fund burn rate must keep low; asymptotic behavior of Decred and other ccs, tail emission; count of full nodes and incentives to run them; Politeia proposal translations and multilingual environment. An unusual event was the chat about double negatives and other oddities in languages in #trading.
DCR started the month at USD 56 / BTC 0.0073 and had a two week decline. On Aug 14 the whole market took a huge drop and briefly went below USD 200 billion. Bitcoin went below USD 6,000 and top 100 cryptos lost 5-30%. The lowest point coincided with Bitcoin dominance peak at 54.5%. On that day Decred dived -17% and reached the bottom of USD 32 / BTC 0.00537. Since then it went sideways in the USD 35-45 / BTC 0.0054-0.0064 range. Around Aug 24, Huobi showed DCR trading volume above USD 5M and this coincided with a minor recovery. @ImacallyouJawdy posted some creative analysis based on ticket data.
StopAndDecrypt published an extensive article "ASIC Resistance is Nothing but a Blockchain Buzzword" that is much in line with Decred's stance on ASICs. The ongoing debates about the possible Sia fork yet again demonstrate the importance of a robust dispute resolution mechanism. Also, we are lucky to have the treasury. Mark B Lundeberg, who found a vulnerability in atomicswap earlier, published a concept of more private peer-to-peer atomic swaps. (missed in July issue) Medium took a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies and triggered at least one project to migrate to Ghost (that same project previously migrated away from Slack). Regulation: Vietnam bans mining equipment imports, China halts crypto events and tightens control of crypto chat groups. Reddit was hacked by intercepting 2FA codes sent via SMS. The announcement explains the impact. Yet another data breach suggests to think twice before sharing any data with any company and shift to more secure authentication systems. Intel and x86 dumpsterfire keeps burning brighter. Seek more secure hardware and operating systems for your coins. Finally, unrelated to Decred but good for a laugh: yetanotherico.com.
About This Issue
This is the 5th issue of Decred Journal. It is mirrored on GitHub, Medium and Reddit. Past issues are available here. Most information from third parties is relayed directly from source after a minimal sanity check. The authors of Decred Journal have no ability to verify all claims. Please beware of scams and do your own research. Feedback is appreciated: please comment on Reddit, GitHub or #writers_room on Matrix or Slack. Contributions are welcome too. Some areas are collecting content, pre-release review or translations to other languages. Check out @Richard-Red's guide how to contribute to Decred using GitHub without writing code. Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, Haon, jazzah, Richard-Red and thedecreddigest.
Breakdown of the Mining Pool Ecosystem as it currently stands, and why the smaller pools are better than you think.
Hi NIM nation! The best Proof of Work (PoW) coins have distributed mining networks. Bitcoin has many pools with large amounts of users mining on the network, yet the highest pool hashrate in percentages is BTC.com with only 25% of the hashrate. Exchanges like coins with distributed mining networks like BTC, as it means the risk of a 51% attack on the network by a pool is minimal. Nimiq, not dissimilar to many other young projects, has a very skewed mining distribution. At the time of writing, beeppool currently has over 51% of the network hashrate, and Skypool combines with Beeppool to claim over 80% of the total hashrate in the last 24 hours. Large exchanges generally frown upon centralised networks like this as they feel they aren't as secure as other networks. This post will talk about the different pools available for Nimiq mining, and why the Big 2 aren't necessarily the best bang for your mining buck right now if you're a long term miner. Before that, let's start with the big 2 Beeppool Beeppool is the largest Nimiq mining pool, owned and operated by Blub. They have the best performing mining clients available, and the clients are smart clients capable of verifying transactions so no chance of a 51% attack by Beeppool... but the pool is currently closed due to an effort by Blub to decentralise the network anyway, as he knows it's unhealthy for a coin to have a centralised mining network incase a pool goes down. The fee was raised from 0.7% to 1% on top of this. The pool also only offers manual payouts, which are done whenever Blub gets around to them (usually 1 - 2 times a day). The pool is reliable overall, but being shut off to new users means the hashrate it is at now will most likely stay that way until it is reopened - maybe even drop if users decide to leave to support smaller pools. Skypool Skypool offers a variety of mining clients through it's own closed source propriety mining client. It is not a smart client (capable of verifying transactions and receiving jobs on its own), however pool operator Azard claims that the pool operates on a P2P network so a 51% attack isn't possible. Due to the clients being closed sourced, it is impossible to verify this. They were the first Nimiq pool on the block, so they have a lot of first mover advantage. But in their short history they've been plagued by server issues, making the pool unreliable. They also had "hashrate spoofing attacks", which meant the spoofers received more NIM than they should have. This NIM was never distributed to other miners, which made members of the community question what they did with it. They also have a 1% fee, and payout only once a day. So the two biggest mining pools only offer payouts one - two times a day at a certain time, which is unusual for many pools. They also have the highest fees out of the pools. This is a point that gets lost among miners new and old, so I want to emphasize this before I continue
Pools with higher hashrates DOES NOT mean that you will receive more NIM than pools with lower hashrates. All it means is that you will receive a more consistent payout.
Why is that important? For short term miners, the consistent payout means that they will be more assured to get the NIM they're mining. But for long term miners, it doesn't matter which pool you choose from - if the hashrate is the same, over time your NIM received will be the same regardless if you're on a small pool or large pool... until the fees kick in. With that being said, it's time to look at some of the smaller mining pools that I have tested and trialed, and look at why they're more appealing options to a longer term miner. Sushipool Sushipool has one of the cleanest UIs out of any mining pool for Nimiq. They also have mining clients for any system based off the smart mining client, which means no 51% attacks for Sushipool - plus a webminer for those who don't want to set up a miner on their computer. The Sushipool webminer was also initially used to support the increasingly popular Tamigochi-like game Nimipets, which uses webmining to generate food for their pets. The pool currently has a 1% fee, and unlike the Big 2 pools, it offers automatic payouts for balances over 10 NIM every 3 hours! It also has servers based over the world as well, allowing low ping connections for most users. It has everything the bigger pools have, plus a nice UI on their website and automatic payouts with a 0% fee, and a variety of other small features that make it stand out as one of the better smaller pools. More info at https://sushipool.com Porkypool Porkypool doesn't offer the breadth of clients like Sushipool does, but it's standout feature is that it offers a one line script for Linux users to instantly compile the Linux miner for their system to run on Porkypool servers. There's also the option of web mining if you don't want to install, although this is done on the official Nimiq miner at nimiq.com. They offer servers around the world like Sushipool, and while they don't have a 0% fee deal for the first month, they do offer a competitive 0.8% fee, which is lower than the Big 2. They also offer payouts over 10 NIM automatically every hour! The consistent payouts are attractive to those who needs to sell as they mine to cover costs. More info at https://porkypool.com/ Nimbus Nimbus is one of the newest pools, and as such it is only supporting Linux miners currently with Windows miners on the way. However, in spite of this, Nimbus offers some of the best performance on a Linux miner that can be found, and they offer a very competitive 0% fee for people who wish to mine with them now. They have a registration system similar to Beeppool, however there is automatic approval so no waiting for the admins to add you. They also have a personalised mining tutorial for those who wish to use Google Cloud Compute's free trial to mine up to potentially 10,000 NIM for effectively free once you register. More info at https://nimbus.fun/ Nimiqchain Nimiqchain recently underwent a relaunch, and is now supported by mining clients for every OS as well as a webminer, and the pool is currently operating on a 0% fee! The pool doesn't require registration, and payouts occur every time a block is found for accounts that are over 10 NIM. They have 4 global servers to connect to for low ping, and the new UI design on the website rivals Sushipool for looks. Well worth a look as they offer competitive fees and a wide range of features More info here - https://pool.nimiqchain.info/ There are also a number of other smaller pools operating, such as Philpool with a competitive 0.5% fee and an easy to use linux script to install. The ones I have spoken about are the ones I have tested and feel comfortable talking about. I mine with Beep or Skypool already - why should I switch? Few reasons
The lower fees mean that over time, if you're in for the long haul you will receive more NIM in pocket and less going to the pool runners. Remember, consistent payouts from larger pools only truly affects short term miners, long term miners will find the payouts average out over time... and besides, if your chosen pool ends up getting a higher hashrates, then the payouts will become more consistent as a result! Win win for everyone
It makes the network more appealing for larger exchanges, and outsider looking in. More exchanges/more outsiders wanting in = more adoption, circulation and use of Nimiq. I'll let you figure out why that's important ;)
The automatic payouts and reliability of the timing of the smaller pool payouts means that in the event that something happens to the pool admins for Beep or Sky, or the pool goes down, you will still be receiving most of your hard earned NIM as you can get your payouts more often. Just ask anyone who tried to withdraw NIM from TradeSatoshi over the last week how frustrating/nerve wrecking it is to have NIM in limbo.
To see the pool hashrates in real time, visit https://poolwatch.info/ for more info. Please note that it uses a logarithmic graph so even if they appear close, they might not be as close as they seem :)
Bitcoin’s total hashrate, via Blockchain.com. This growth is partially due to the rise of large-scale mining farms. Though it is not clear how heavily Bitcoin mining farms dominate mining, one firm (Layer 1) has suggested that it controls 2% of the total Bitcoin hashrate. Larger farms may have even greater dominance. Mining hashrate is a key security metric. The more hashing (computing) power in the network, the greater its security and its overall resistance to attack. Although Bitcoin’s exact hashing power is unknown, it is possible to estimate it from the number of blocks being mined and the current block difficulty. 8MB - blocks containing string "8M" in their coinbase scriptSig (i.e. miners supporting block size increase to 8MB citation needed) ; BIP100 - blocks containing string "BV" + some digits in their coinbase scriptSig that is BIP100 (and others based on it), also includes blocks with string "BIP100" in coinbase ; BIP101 - blocks with version 0x20000007 as defined in BIP101 Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Bitcoin Charts. Blocks: 481823: Total BTC: 16.523M: Difficulty: 923233068449: Estimated: 887736944047 in 1 blks: Network total: 7983858.406 Thash/s: Blocks/hour: 7.25 / 497 s ... Bitcoin Hashrate Chart. The Bitcoin hashrate chart provides the current Bitcoin hashrate history in graph format with an option to expand the Bitcoin global hashrate chart time frame back to 2009. Bitcoin Hashrate Now: 116.93 EH/s Oct 07, 2020 07:58 AM UTC - 116,932,872,907,258,100,000 H/s
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