03-09 20:23 - 'Another reason why whitepaper pursim is a ridiculous cult. [Here] in 2010 Satoshi did a stealth edit to calculate cumulative POW. Longest chain as a metric will cause huge problems with SPV as SPV clients would have no problem...' by /u/jakesonwu removed from /r/Bitcoin within 0-4min
''' Another reason why whitepaper pursim is a ridiculous cult. [Here]1 in 2010 Satoshi did a stealth edit to calculate cumulative POW. Longest chain as a metric will cause huge problems with SPV as SPV clients would have no problem accepting longest invalid chain. ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: jakesonwu 1: gith*b.*o**bitc*in*b*t*oin/commit/40c*0369*1*3*3f8d7385*50e20342e998c994*1*di**-*23***d6*a1a4522**ee*71*96*47b31*4*0 Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
The Blockstream has raised $76M to date from investors, including venture capital firms Horizons Ventures, Mosaic Ventures, and AXA Strategic Ventures. How much hardware and HDD storage can you buy with $76M investment to run more full nodes? I made a little calculation on the cost to keep Bitcoin network more "decentralized"? And I found out that you could buy over 100,000 hard drives 16 Terabyte each, to compare, currently there are only ~7000 active BTC nodes. They keep telling that more nodes are the most crucial point of Bitcoin decentralization, but less than 0,01% BTC users run a full node. That % number isn't going increase anytime soon. What Blockstream did with that investment? They told Bitcoin can't scale onchain, and started developing L2 solutions that are barely used. Majority of BTC users don't use LN. Here is what Satoshi told 10 years ago. The existing Visa credit card network processes about 15 million Internet purchases per day worldwide. Bitcoin can already scale much larger than that with existing hardware for a fraction of the cost. It never really hits a scale ceiling.
This material is published using the PII algorithm (point information impact) developed byzitramon1 Bitcoin is the lowest projection of the energy standard of the Higher Plans Erzanil and has nothing to do with money or cryptocurrencies. In its primary principle, bitcoin was intended to replace the modern banking credit monetary system to SES — the system of energy-informational-energy settlements / mutual settlements. Unfortunately, something went wrong. Money is a deadly virus that in the past destroyed the vast majority of ancient highly developed civilizations of our planet. Our civilization is no exception. The real Bitcoin, which was supposed to replace the existing bank credit monetary system with a system of energy settlements, as well as countless times in the past, was successfully destroyed. At the moment, bitcoin is deprived of its basic qualities. But, nevertheless, even in such a “truncated” form it is a powerful tool for terraforming the existing paradigm of the material world. At the level of society or the manifested physical world, represented by the third dimension, Bitcoin is the Standard and Measure from which any Countdown starts, and which are the basis of all Principles. Bitcoin itself is not only composed of pure energy, but also itself is energy in the very purest form. Our world is energy-informational. Everything that exists in this Universe and in this Dimension, as well as in many other dimensions, is the same Energy, but in its various states. And the state of Vibration of this energy, providing one or another level of its Density, just decides how it will manifest in our Reality. Matter is the compressed energy of slow vibration. In fact, bitcoin is the equivalent of energy, of which everything around us consists, including — and we are with you! The tragedy of the majority is that it does not understand the true purpose of Bitcoin — it is that Measure of everything and everything from which the entire Countdown comes. Not the price of Bitcoin should be modeled in dollars, gold or parrots — which is absolutely equivalent, but the value of all other attributes of society in bitcoins! The fractality of Bitcoin, as the foundation of any of the Worlds in which you are located, is reflected in its essence: at low-frequency levels, its projection represents two diverse anu combined in a single whole. It is this explosive-implosive particle that combines two opposites, and not some mythical atoms, quanta, neutrinos, and similar nonsense, is the basis of everything! Not Satoshi is the smallest part of bitcoin, but a double anu or argo! Remember the catch phrase that personifies the synonym of all the great Beginnings — “like the Argonauts in the old days” !? Try to guess the first time about its origins, located on a subconscious level. The mining process itself is nothing more than a manifestation of the lower projections of the energy standard of the higher planes of erzanil. The latter are “materialized” at the level of the third dimension or society in the form of bitcoins. During mining, the three main types of energy: electrical energy, the thermal energy of the video card / device itself and the energy that the programmer potentiated into the mining process itself, are converted into energy to fill the shells of bitcoins generated during the hashing process. This energy is stored in every bitcoin forever and will increase until the last block of the last bitcoin is fully mined. This energy, which is potentialized in bitcoin, which can neither be felt nor touched, is what you get with bitcoin and / or any part of it !!! And in the future, invest it / Bitcoin, exchange, buy, change, etc. etc. And it is this energy, in the future, that will serve as an evaluation standard for the value of all things. The smallest part of bitcoin is not Satoshi, but Argo or the double Anu. One argo is one in minus twenty-first degree part of bitcoin, and its energy potential corresponds to one in minus twenty-first degree of it, bitcoin, the maximum possible energy content. The entire energy potential of 21 million bitcoins determines the energy / energy-information capacity = energy / energy-information potential of the sephira Malkut of the Tree of life (Kabbalah) or the manifest physical world at the level of the third dimension. In other words, all people including you and me, to some extent consist of bitcoins and represent its integral and composition parts! More confirmation of this: https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020060606&tab=PCTBIBLIO Calculations / mutual settlements by bitcoins are possible not only at the level of society / third dimension, but also on higher planes — astral and mental, since bitcoin is not an equivalent but pure energy and this makes subsequent contacts with more advanced forms of life possible other systems! THAT’S WHAT IS THE ESSENCE OF BITCOIN! p.s. You can see how bitcoin is managed here: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/hy4x5y/is_bitcoin_real_bitcoin_today/
AITD class lesson 4: Mining will bring fortune, Consensus will generate value faster.
As we all know, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, there is no central currency publisher. The question is that how first Bitcoin was generated if there are no publishers for Bitcoin. The answer is: Through Mining. https://preview.redd.it/ebm9zfvbotr51.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=798802bf75101284a9e6b111a66188c2b9b78d2a In January of 2009, Bitcoin father Satoshi nakamoto got the First Genesis Block through data mining on Bitcoin network and received 50 Bitcoins as rewards, therefore, first set of Bitcoins was official revealed. Since then, more and more Bitcoin mining labors started mining,as a result, they got tones of Bitcoins. Mining is not like real mining in Bitcoin, it depends on the consensus algorithm from Bitcoin networks, using mining machine continuously to calculate Block password. The mining machine which gets the correct answer will unlock Blocks and get Bitcoins ( In the Block) as rewards. The whole mining processes are kind of like purchase lottery, people who gets more numbers will get higher chance to match the winning number; The differences are that there are no second position prizes or third position prizes and people can not share prizes with other people. After explaining mining, let's take a look at consensus algorithm we mention earlier. The whole mining processes will count on consensus algorithm to process, we can consider consensus algorithm as “ Mining rules". Let's take Bitcoin as an example. POW algorithm used in Bitcoin network can be simply considering as contribution force algorithm . The algorithm requires that every single node has the right to start mining, it is the computing processes for Block password; In Blockchain Industry, it usually consider continuously computing processes for nodes mining as Hashrate contribution, unlock Blocks, gaining Bitcoin rewards possibilities will be higher if node's Hashrate contribution is higher. In the beginning period of Bitcoin, the difficulty is not high for mining, mining labor can unlocked Blocks easily and got rewards, as Bitcoin consensus is getting stronger, more and more people are starting joining mining Bitcoins. Difficulty will be higher if there are more competitors, Hashrate consumed by mining machine will be higher, at the same time, due to output has been cut into half for Bitcoin blocks, the profits from mining are continuously compressing, the Hashrate resources waste caused by POW algorithm was causing criticism from public. According to the developing Blockchain techniques, members within the industry are looking for low cost mining mode, therefore, POS, DPOS, POC algorithms started continuously appearing. These algorithms are getting ride of contribution forces algorithm from Bitcoin, building "Gaining Bitcoin will generate revenue""Small amount of witnesses are starting mining for blocks", "Disc capacity prove" multiple mining methods, enabling digital currency to apply in various scenarios.( Detail transformation processes will be explained in the next episode.) Currently, Consensus algorithm is transforming to simplify procedures, reducing resources usage direction, Only improved algorithm mechanism will get strong consensus. In the future, there will be many more algorithms appearing in the market, mining procedure will be simpler, fair, energy reduced. Next episode preview: The transformation path for consensus algorithm mechanism.
The Undiscovered Facts Behind Money Laundering, Cryptocurrency, and Banks
A week ago, a lot of documents known as the FinCEN documents were delivered, enumerating how the absolute greatest banks on the globe move trillions of dollars in dubious exchanges for suspected psychological militants, kleptocrats, and drug top dogs. Also, the U.S. government has neglected to stop it. https://preview.redd.it/lme57jyyx1r51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=014ead7b7b812b3d6cbaf4a141eeec123589121b The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network ("FinCEN"), an agency inside the Treasury Department, accused of battling tax evasion, psychological militant financing, and other monetary violations. An assortment of "dubious movement reports" offers a window into budgetary debasement, and how governments can't or reluctant to stop it. Benefits from destructive medication wars, fortunes stole from creating nations, and hard-earned investment funds taken in Ponzi plans, all course through money related establishments, in spite of admonitions from bank workers. These reports are available to US law enforcement agencies and other nations’ financial intelligence operations. Although FinCEN is aware of the money laundering activities, it lacks the authority to stop it. Money laundering is more than a financial crime. It is a tool that makes all other crimes possible - from drug trafficking to political crimes. And banks make it all possible. In a detailed expose, BuzzFeedNews named several of the most trusted banks. Current investigations show that even after fines and prosecutions, well-known JPMorgan Chase JPM (+0.9%), HSBC, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of New York Mellon BK (+0.8%) are all involved in moving funds for suspected criminals. The current money related framework generally protects the banks and its heads from the indictment, inasmuch as the bank documents a notification with FinCEN that it might be encouraging crime. The dubious movement alert adequately gives the banks a free pass. Thus, unlawful finances keep on moving through banks into different businesses from oil to amusement to land, further isolating the rich from poor people, while the banks we have developed to trust, make everything conceivable. As indicated by the United Nations, the assessed measure of cash laundered universally in one year is 2 to 5% of the worldwide GDP, or $800 billion to $2 trillion, with more than thank 90% of illegal tax avoidance going undetected today. Simultaneously, the cryptocurrency industry has likewise been condemned for being an apparatus for tax evasion, in spite of insights expressing something else. It is assessed that solitary 1.1% of all digital currency exchanges are illegal. During its initial days, Bitcoin was generally connected with the Silk Road, an online dim net commercial center, where clients could buy weapons and unlawful medications namelessly. Be that as it may, with the developing utilization of the Bitcoin organization, 42 million Bitcoin wallets, and checking, it is getting progressively conceivable to follow exchanges on open blockchains, while private financial exchanges stay covered up on display. This week, I had a chance to plunk down with Chanpeng Zhao "CZ", the Founder and CEO of Binance, the biggest cryptographic money trade by volume on the planet, to get his interpretation of illegal tax avoidance both in the customary and the computerized fund universes. Coming up next are a couple of features from our meeting: Much obliged to you for going along with us today, CZ. As you would see it, for what reason is illegal tax avoidance especially destructive to our economy? CZ: As monetary administration suppliers, it is our obligation to battle unlawful action. Everybody shares this duty. Yet, regularly once the principles are set up, individuals will attempt to get around the guidelines. What's more, there are individuals who simply need more business, and knowing or unconsciously will encourage these exchanges. We live in an intricate world, where one nation may see a go about as criminal and the other may not. Many individuals have a high contrast see, yet the world is really dim. Not all banks are honest and not all crypto organizations are terrible. The digital currency industry has experienced harsh criticism for encouraging unlawful exchanges. How would you think conventional money and digital currency businesses analyze in such manner? CZ: If you are utilizing Bitcoin, it is a straightforward record. When you have a couple of exchanges, you can follow the assets right back to where the coins were mined. So along these lines, blockchain really gives a straightforward record to everybody to dissect. In the event that you piece together a couple of information focuses and do a group examination, it isn't that difficult for a calculation to break down the beginning. Security coins are more earnestly to follow, yet their market top isn't unreasonably high, making bigger exchanges more troublesome. So to be completely forthright, it is a lot simpler to make illegal exchanges utilizing fiat than utilizing crypto. How might you analyze the volume of illegal exchanges in crypto versus fiat? CZ:It's likely a thousand times less. Essentially, for any important measure of cash you need to move in the crypto, it is exceptionally difficult to move it namelessly. There are outsider checking devices and information bases that can coordinate a considerable lot of the addresses to known people. The digital currency market top is little to the point, that in the event that you are moving a $100 million dollars, you can't do as such without experiencing an incorporated trade, making it considerably simpler to follow. The cryptographic money space overall was begun by Satoshi Nakomoto as to some degree a campaign against the defilement of banks. Remarkably, the beginning square of Bitcoin contained a commentary tending to the bailouts of banks in 2008 and 2009 ["The Times 3 January 2009 - Chancellor on edge of second bailout for banks."] Is that ethos still alive in the digital currency space today, the drive to bring down the enormous person? CZ: I have even more a fair view here. Some in the crypto space are against banks, fiat, and so forth., while others think digital forms of money are utilized by drug masters. Those are two extraordinary perspectives. My view is that digital money offers opportunities - a further extent of opportunity in exchanges, ventures, property, reserve funds, and so on. We are simply offering another choice for clients who esteem that opportunity and control. I'm not against any bank or any single individual. I think crypto offers a higher opportunity of cash, and thusly we need to give more individuals admittance to crypto… If I don't care for the banks, I simply don't utilize them. Where do you feel the equalization lies between the legislature securing its residents as opposed to encouraging advancement? CZ: I accept governments ought to be public administrations. They ought to give streets and fire departments...Whenever there is government intercession, it is awful for the economy. At whatever point an administration encourages one gathering, it naturally harms another. The administration influences the parity of the economy giving assistance to a gathering that isn't sufficiently serious to remain alive. So at whatever point an administration rescues huge banks, or any business so far as that is concerned, they just appear as though they are making a difference. I have confidence in a free economy, and I buy into that way of thinking unequivocally. Much obliged to you for your understanding, CZ. More information about PrivateX: www.privatex.io PrivateX is a private wallet for sending, receiving, and storing your Bitcoin and Ethereum. If you are interested in services, contact us [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) #moneylaundering#privatex#buybitcoin24#binance#huobiglobal#kraken#crypto#bitcoin#consulting24#buybitcoin#buybitcoinnow#blockchain#startacompanyinestonia#companyinestonia#estonia#cryptoexchanges#privatexcoin
[PSA] Electrum and Eclair both support Testnet-LN to learn about LN
I rewrote this post to clean it up a bit and add more context. With the last few drops of Electrum it's been much easier to use LN. I've played around with Electrum-desktop on testnet. Everything worked great, and it is a great way to learn about channel capacity and invoices without having to put real money at risk. Electrum has a "swap" button to adjust capacity but I think it may be broken on testnet presently. There are a few ways to adjust capacity / liquidity that I'll discuss below.
Get Electrum running
Install Electrum 4.0.2 and run it on testnet enabling LN.
Open a channel in Electrum with either a known entity, or use their channel suggestion
Wait an hour or so for the channel to open.
Perform a submarine-swap operation to give you a 50/50 capacity
Wait for the swap to complete
LN channels have a (local) sending capacity and a (remote) receiving capacity. To verify your local/remote capacity click on the channel and view "Details". New channels default to 100%/0% local/remote capacity, meaning you can send, but not receive. There is also some rule that requires you to be below 90% local before you can receive anything. So if you need to receive payments on LN before you spend 10% of your local capacity you will need to find a way to balance local/remote. As mentioned before, the easiest is just to spend (try starblocks), but if you don't have anything to spend on there are some other options
Electrum Swap Button - Currently broken in testnet, but the intention is to provide an in-app ability to do a reverse_swap (LN to BTC) to allow you to pull some of your local capacity out of your channel giving you some balance. Normally you just hit the Swap button in the channel tab and follow instructions.
Use third party Swap site - The Boltz Exchange has a testnet swap service that is pretty simple to use. You can also use them on mainnet, though you really should calculate the fees by hand to know what your in for. Other mainnet services like FixedFloat, or lighting-labs loop are also popular choices
Push on Open Channel - If your opening a channel between nodes you own, you can use the electrum-cli to set a push_amt to push out of your channel to the remote node on open. This is the same as paying them some amount, just without an invoice. So make sure you only push to yourself, or those you actually owe money to.
Once you free up some receive capacity, you also need to ensure that your node is reachable. In the default config your node will not be publicly visible. Electrum will handle the last hop for you, but your sender still need to at least be able to route to one of the nodes you have receive capacity on. This may occationally fail causing "Path not found" errots when sending, or when others send to you. In the Electrum preferences there are some options to run local watchtowers and keep the app resident. This will help since your wallet needs to be running for it to receive payments. But even if you enable all options sometimes you will just end up on an isolated node. If this happens, take care to ensure you connect to nodes that are highly connected to others (view 1ml highly connect list). If you want to test your visibility, just paste an invoice in this thread and hopefully someone can try to send you some tBTC-LN.
09-22 18:35 - 'Bitcoin Gift' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Intelligent_Ad8786 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 140-150min
''' I saw 5 million satoshi being given as a gift on a Twitter page I came across. I immediately participated in the lottery. If I didn't calculate it wrong, it makes about $ 100. I'm leaving the link. [[link]3 [[link]4 ''' Bitcoin Gift Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: Intelligent_Ad8786 1: twitt*r.com*Coin*ral/s**tus/13**9**112**3444*36 2: www.**intral.**m/excha*ge*reg**ter 3: **i*te*.com/Co**tr*l*status/*3*691211296*44*7*6]^^1 4: **w*c*intra**com/exch*nge*registe*]^^* Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
How To End The Cryptocurrency Exchange "Wild West" Without Crippling Innovation
In case you haven't noticed the consultation paper, staff notice, and report on Quadriga, regulators are now clamping down on Canadian cryptocurrency exchanges. The OSC and other regulatory bodies are still interested in industry feedback. They have not put forward any official regulation yet. Below are some ideas/insights and a proposed framework.
Typical securities frameworks will cost Canadians millions of dollars (ie Sarbanes-Oxley estimated at $5m USD/yr per firm). Implementation costs of this proposal are significantly cheaper.
Canadians can maintain a diverse set of exchanges, multiple viable business models are still fully supported, and innovation is encouraged while keeping Canadians safe.
Many of you have limited time to read the full proposal, so here are the highlights:
Effective standards to prevent both internal and external theft. Exchange operators are trained and certified, and have a legal responsibility to users.
Regular Transparent Audits
Provides visibility to Canadians that their funds are fully backed on the exchange, while protecting privacy and sensitive platform information.
Establishment of basic insurance standards/strategy, to expand over time. Removing risk to exchange users of any hot wallet theft.
Background and Justifications
Cold Storage Custody/Management After reviewing close to 100 cases, all thefts tend to break down into more or less the same set of problems: • Funds stored online or in a smart contract, • Access controlled by one person or one system, • 51% attacks (rare), • Funds sent to the wrong address (also rare), or • Some combination of the above. For the first two cases, practical solutions exist and are widely implemented on exchanges already. Offline multi-signature solutions are already industry standard. No cases studied found an external theft or exit scam involving an offline multi-signature wallet implementation. Security can be further improved through minimum numbers of signatories, background checks, providing autonomy and legal protections to each signatory, establishing best practices, and a training/certification program. The last two transaction risks occur more rarely, and have never resulted in a loss affecting the actual users of the exchange. In all cases to date where operators made the mistake, they've been fully covered by the exchange platforms. • 51% attacks generally only occur on blockchains with less security. The most prominent cases have been Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic. The simple solution is to enforce deposit limits and block delays such that a 51% attack is not cost-effective. • The risk of transactions to incorrect addresses can be eliminated by a simple test transaction policy on large transactions. By sending a small amount of funds prior to any large withdrawals/transfers as a standard practice, the accuracy of the wallet address can be validated. The proposal covers all loss cases and goes beyond, while avoiding significant additional costs, risks, and limitations which may be associated with other frameworks like SOC II. On The Subject of Third Party Custodians Many Canadian platforms are currently experimenting with third party custody. From the standpoint of the exchange operator, they can liberate themselves from some responsibility of custody, passing that off to someone else. For regulators, it puts crypto in similar categorization to oil, gold, and other commodities, with some common standards. Platform users would likely feel greater confidence if the custodian was a brand they recognized. If the custodian was knowledgeable and had a decent team that employed multi-sig, they could keep assets safe from internal theft. With the right protections in place, this could be a great solution for many exchanges, particularly those that lack the relevant experience or human resources for their own custody systems. However, this system is vulnerable to anyone able to impersonate the exchange operators. You may have a situation where different employees who don't know each other that well are interacting between different companies (both the custodian and all their customers which presumably isn't just one exchange). A case study of what can go wrong in this type of environment might be Bitpay, where the CEO was tricked out of 5000 bitcoins over 3 separate payments by a series of emails sent legitimately from a breached computer of another company CEO. It's also still vulnerable to the platform being compromised, as in the really large $70M Bitfinex hack, where the third party Bitgo held one key in a multi-sig wallet. The hacker simply authorized the withdrawal using the same credentials as Bitfinex (requesting Bitgo to sign multiple withdrawal transactions). This succeeded even with the use of multi-sig and two heavily security-focused companies, due to the lack of human oversight (basically, hot wallet). Of course, you can learn from these cases and improve the security, but so can hackers improve their deception and at the end of the day, both of these would have been stopped by the much simpler solution of a qualified team who knew each other and employed multi-sig with properly protected keys. It's pretty hard to beat a human being who knows the business and the typical customer behaviour (or even knows their customers personally) at spotting fraud, and the proposed multi-sig means any hacker has to get through the scrutiny of 3 (or more) separate people, all of whom would have proper training including historical case studies. There are strong arguments both for and against using use of third party custodians. The proposal sets mandatory minimum custody standards would apply regardless if the cold wallet signatories are exchange operators, independent custodians, or a mix of both. On The Subject Of Insurance ShakePay has taken the first steps into this new realm (congratulations). There is no question that crypto users could be better protected by the right insurance policies, and it certainly feels better to transact with insured platforms. The steps required to obtain insurance generally place attention in valuable security areas, and in this case included a review from CipherTrace. One of the key solutions in traditional finance comes from insurance from entities such as the CDIC. However, historically, there wasn't found any actual insurance payout to any cryptocurrency exchange, and there are notable cases where insurance has not paid. With Bitpay, for example, the insurance agent refused because the issue happened to the third party CEO's computer instead of anything to do with Bitpay itself. With the Youbit exchange in South Korea, their insurance claim was denied, and the exchange ultimately ended up instead going bankrupt with all user's funds lost. To quote Matt Johnson in the original Lloyd's article: “You can create an insurance policy that protects no one – you know there are so many caveats to the policy that it’s not super protective.” ShakePay's insurance was only reported to cover their cold storage, and “physical theft of the media where the private keys are held”. Physical theft has never, in the history of cryptocurrency exchange cases reviewed, been reported as the cause of loss. From the limited information of the article, ShakePay made it clear their funds are in the hands of a single US custodian, and at least part of their security strategy is to "decline to confirm the custodian’s name on the record". While this prevents scrutiny of the custodian, it's pretty silly to speculate that a reasonably competent hacking group couldn't determine who the custodian is. A far more common infiltration strategy historically would be social engineering, which has succeeded repeatedly. A hacker could trick their way into ShakePay's systems and request a fraudulent withdrawal, impersonate ShakePay and request the custodian to move funds, or socially engineer their way into the custodian to initiate the withdrawal of multiple accounts (a payout much larger than ShakePay) exploiting the standard procedures (for example, fraudulently initiating or override the wallet addresses of a real transfer). In each case, nothing was physically stolen and the loss is therefore not covered by insurance. In order for any insurance to be effective, clear policies have to be established about what needs to be covered. Anything short of that gives Canadians false confidence that they are protected when they aren't in any meaningful way. At this time, the third party insurance market does not appear to provide adequate options or coverage, and effort is necessary to standardize custody standards, which is a likely first step in ultimately setting up an insurance framework. A better solution compared to third party insurance providers might be for Canadian exchange operators to create their own collective insurance fund, or a specific federal organization similar to the CDIC. Such an organization would have a greater interest or obligation in paying out actual cases, and that would be it's purpose rather than maximizing it's own profit. This would be similar to the SAFU which Binance has launched, except it would cover multiple exchanges. There is little question whether the SAFU would pay out given a breach of Binance, and a similar argument could be made for a insurance fund managed by a collective of exchange operators or a government organization. While a third party insurance provider has the strong market incentive to provide the absolute minimum coverage and no market incentive to payout, an entity managed by exchange operators would have incentive to protect the reputation of exchange operators/the industry, and the government should have the interest of protecting Canadians. On The Subject of Fractional Reserve There is a long history of fractional reserve failures, from the first banks in ancient times, through the great depression (where hundreds of fractional reserve banks failed), right through to the 2008 banking collapse referenced in the first bitcoin block. The fractional reserve system allows banks to multiply the money supply far beyond the actual cash (or other assets) in existence, backed only by a system of debt obligations of others. Safely supporting a fractional reserve system is a topic of far greater complexity than can be addressed by a simple policy, and when it comes to cryptocurrency, there is presently no entity reasonably able to bail anyone out in the event of failure. Therefore, this framework is addressed around entities that aim to maintain 100% backing of funds. There may be some firms that desire but have failed to maintain 100% backing. In this case, there are multiple solutions, including outside investment, merging with other exchanges, or enforcing a gradual restoration plan. All of these solutions are typically far better than shutting down the exchange, and there are multiple cases where they've been used successfully in the past. Proof of Reserves/Transparency/Accountability Canadians need to have visibility into the backing on an ongoing basis. The best solution for crypto-assets is a Proof of Reserve. Such ideas go back all the way to 2013, before even Mt. Gox. However, no Canadian exchange has yet implemented such a system, and only a few international exchanges (CoinFloor in the UK being an example) have. Many firms like Kraken, BitBuy, and now ShakePay use the Proof of Reserve term to refer to lesser proofs which do not actually cryptographically prove the full backing of all user assets on the blockchain. In order for a Proof of Reserve to be effective, it must actually be a complete proof, and it needs to be understood by the public that is expected to use it. Many firms have expressed reservations about the level of transparency required in a complete Proof of Reserve (for example Kraken here). While a complete Proof of Reserves should be encouraged, and there are some solutions in the works (ie TxQuick), this is unlikely to be suitable universally for all exchange operators and users. Given the limitations, and that firms also manage fiat assets, a more traditional audit process makes more sense. Some Canadian exchanges (CoinSquare, CoinBerry) have already subjected themselves to annual audits. However, these results are not presently shared publicly, and there is no guarantee over the process including all user assets or the integrity and independence of the auditor. The auditor has been typically not known, and in some cases, the identity of the auditor is protected by a NDA. Only in one case (BitBuy) was an actual report generated and publicly shared. There has been no attempt made to validate that user accounts provided during these audits have been complete or accurate. A fraudulent fractional exchange, or one which had suffered a breach they were unwilling to publicly accept (see CoinBene), could easily maintain a second set of books for auditors or simply exclude key accounts to pass an individual audit. The proposed solution would see a reporting standard which includes at a minimum - percentage of backing for each asset relative to account balances and the nature of how those assets are stored, with ownership proven by the auditor. The auditor would also publicly provide a "hash list", which they independently generate from the accounts provided by the exchange. Every exchange user can then check their information against this public "hash list". A hash is a one-way form of encryption, which fully protects the private information, yet allows anyone who knows that information already to validate that it was included. Less experienced users can take advantage of public tools to calculate the hash from their information (provided by the exchange), and thus have certainty that the auditor received their full balance information. Easy instructions can be provided. Auditors should be impartial, their identities and process public, and they should be rotated so that the same auditor is never used twice in a row. Balancing the cost of auditing against the needs for regular updates, a 6 month cycle likely makes the most sense. Hot Wallet Management The best solution for hot wallets is not to use them. CoinBerry reportedly uses multi-sig on all withdrawals, and Bitmex is an international example known for their structure devoid of hot wallets. However, many platforms and customers desire fast withdrawal processes, and human validation has a cost of time and delay in this process. A model of self-insurance or separate funds for hot wallets may be used in these cases. Under this model, a platform still has 100% of their client balance in cold storage and holds additional funds in hot wallets for quick withdrawal. Thus, the risk of those hot wallets is 100% on exchange operators and not affecting the exchange users. Since most platforms typically only have 1%-5% in hot wallets at any given time, it shouldn't be unreasonable to build/maintain these additional reserves over time using exchange fees or additional investment. Larger withdrawals would still be handled at regular intervals from the cold storage. Hot wallet risks have historically posed a large risk and there is no established standard to guarantee secure hot wallets. When the government of South Korea dispatched security inspections to multiple exchanges, the results were still that 3 of them got hacked after the inspections. If standards develop such that an organization in the market is willing to insure the hot wallets, this could provide an acceptable alternative. Another option may be for multiple exchange operators to pool funds aside for a hot wallet insurance fund. Comprehensive coverage standards must be established and maintained for all hot wallet balances to make sure Canadians are adequately protected.
Current Draft Proposal
(1) Proper multi-signature cold wallet storage. (a) Each private key is the personal and legal responsibility of one person - the “signatory”. Signatories have special rights and responsibilities to protect user assets. Signatories are trained and certified through a course covering (1) past hacking and fraud cases, (2) proper and secure key generation, and (3) proper safekeeping of private keys. All private keys must be generated and stored 100% offline by the signatory. If even one private keys is ever breached or suspected to be breached, the wallet must be regenerated and all funds relocated to a new wallet. (b) All signatories must be separate background-checked individuals free of past criminal conviction. Canadians should have a right to know who holds their funds. All signing of transactions must take place with all signatories on Canadian soil or on the soil of a country with a solid legal system which agrees to uphold and support these rules (from an established white-list of countries which expands over time). (c) 3-5 independent signatures are required for any withdrawal. There must be 1-3 spare signatories, and a maximum of 7 total signatories. The following are all valid combinations: 3of4, 3of5, 3of6, 4of5, 4of6, 4of7, 5of6, or 5of7. (d) A security audit should be conducted to validate the cold wallet is set up correctly and provide any additional pertinent information. The primary purpose is to ensure that all signatories are acting independently and using best practices for private key storage. A report summarizing all steps taken and who did the audit will be made public. Canadians must be able to validate the right measures are in place to protect their funds. (e) There is a simple approval process if signatories wish to visit any country outside Canada, with a potential whitelist of exempt countries. At most 2 signatories can be outside of aligned jurisdiction at any given time. All exchanges would be required to keep a compliant cold wallet for Canadian funds and have a Canadian office if they wish to serve Canadian customers. (2) Regular and transparent solvency audits. (a) An audit must be conducted at founding, after 3 months of operation, and at least once every 6 months to compare customer balances against all stored cryptocurrency and fiat balances. The auditor must be known, independent, and never the same twice in a row. (b) An audit report will be published featuring the steps conducted in a readable format. This should be made available to all Canadians on the exchange website and on a government website. The report must include what percentage of each customer asset is backed on the exchange, and how those funds are stored. (c) The auditor will independently produce a hash of each customer's identifying information and balance as they perform the audit. This will be made publicly available on the exchange and government website, along with simplified instructions that each customer can use to verify that their balance was included in the audit process. (d) The audit needs to include a proof of ownership for any cryptocurrency wallets included. A satoshi test (spending a small amount) or partially signed transaction both qualify. (e) Any platform without 100% reserves should be assessed on a regular basis by a government or industry watchdog. This entity should work to prevent any further drop, support any private investor to come in, or facilitate a merger so that 100% backing can be obtained as soon as possible. (3) Protections for hot wallets and transactions. (a) A standardized list of approved coins and procedures will be established to constitute valid cold storage wallets. Where a multi-sig process is not natively available, efforts will be undertaken to establish a suitable and stable smart contract standard. This list will be expanded and improved over time. Coins and procedures not on the list are considered hot wallets. (b) Hot wallets can be backed by additional funds in cold storage or an acceptable third-party insurance provider with a comprehensive coverage policy. (c) Exchanges are required to cover the full balance of all user funds as denominated in the same currency, or double the balance as denominated in bitcoin or CAD using an established trading rate. If the balance is ever insufficient due to market movements, the firm must rectify this within 24 hours by moving assets to cold storage or increasing insurance coverage. (d) Any large transactions (above a set threshold) from cold storage to any new wallet addresses (not previously transacted with) must be tested with a smaller transaction first. Deposits of cryptocurrency must be limited to prevent economic 51% attacks. Any issues are to be covered by the exchange. (e) Exchange platforms must provide suitable authentication for users, including making available approved forms of two-factor authentication. SMS-based authentication is not to be supported. Withdrawals must be blocked for 48 hours in the event of any account password change. Disputes on the negligence of exchanges should be governed by case law.
Continued review of existing OSC feedback is still underway. More feedback and opinions on the framework and ideas as presented here are extremely valuable. The above is a draft and not finalized. The process of further developing and bringing a suitable framework to protect Canadians will require the support of exchange operators, legal experts, and many others in the community. The costs of not doing such are tremendous. A large and convoluted framework, one based on flawed ideas or implementation, or one which fails to properly safeguard Canadians is not just extremely expensive and risky for all Canadians, severely limiting to the credibility and reputation of the industry, but an existential risk to many exchanges. The responsibility falls to all of us to provide our insight and make our opinions heard on this critical matter. Please take the time to give your thoughts.
How Blockchain.com harms the cryptocurrency community
This post has been written to draw Blockchain.com's attention to the issues of its product.
Blockchain.com (formerly Blockchain.info) was founded in 2011 and with no doubt has helped the Bitcoin community to create a block explorer and has proven itself as a valuable service. Millions of people from all over the world use their wallet. However, time goes on, Bitcoin develops, but one of the main cryptocurrency companies not only slows down the process of its development, but also discredits the usability of cryptocurrencies. Why is that? We have tried to explain that in this post. https://preview.redd.it/i0yk7qraqkw41.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=963dc18551d2900bca456bfa3a6cfd3636c7c93c
1. Lack of Segwit Address Support
This is the most painful problem for our service. To receive cryptocurrency we use segwit addresses by default. If a customer contacts our support, we can of course change an address in an order to P2SH (the one that begins with number "3"), but it reduces the usability of the service. Why don't we use P2SH by default? It is less beneficial both for us and for our client, as the cost of the consolidation of the transaction is taken into account when calculating the exchange rate. With a high network load and with orders for a small amount, the commission becomes significant. To compare — segwit addresses (or Bech32 that starts with "bc1") are 15% more advantageous than P2SH. Segwit (Segregated Witness) was activated in 2017. At the end of the same year the CEO of Blockchain.info announced its support starting from (most likely) 2018. We can understand certain fears at the beginning of the way, as the company's security system is for sure not that bad. However more than 2 years have passed since then and that is a lot for the crypto world.
2. Using Legacy (P2PKH) Addresses Only
As of now only a P2PKH address (that starts with number "1") is used in the Blockchain.com wallet to receive cryptocurrency. Why is that bad? It is unfavorable for the users of this wallet. They spend 29% more than those using P2SH addresses.
3. Confusion with PAX and USD Digital
Changing the names of the currencies from one to another only in a Blockchain.com wallet is a rather strange decision. The key problem is that nowhere in the wallet are there any clues that this is an ERC-20 PAX token on the Ethereum blockchain. New wallet users will most likely be confused by this. We sometimes get questions: "do we have USD Digital to buy or to sell?" and our technical support is forced to explain that it is PAX.
4. Incompetence of mobile application developers
In fact, this post was inspired by this particular problem. We will not focus on performance or shortcomings, we will just tell you about the main issue. It is worth starting with questions. What problem does a mobile application solve when a person needs to pay for something? What is the best way to fill in the recipient address and the payment amount on the smartphone? Answer: QR code. Scanning the QR code in this application is done not just badly, but also in such a way that creates maximum number of problems for a user. The fact is that in the Android application when scanning code with the bitcoin:?amount=, the value of the amount to be inserted in the corresponding field may differ from the encoded value by 1-100 Satoshi! Our team simply does not understand how this was implemented. Do not believe? Try it yourself. Amount to insert — 0.00143452 BTC bitcoin:3LAxDr5CxwBJT4tCejV8rpAXETz7bUH3tG?amount=0.00143452 After receiving information on such a problem from our users, we began to monitor updates to this application. After 2 updates had come out, the problem was not fixed. And what about iOS? When scanning a QR code with a sum in iOS , the sum value is simply not inserted into the field! No comments. Bravo! Blockchain.com wallet has different currencies, not just Bitcoin. Let's try Ethereum. You want to scan QR codes for Ethereum payment with the relevant sum? There is no such possibility. The application will respond with an "Invalid address" to all such codes:
For BitcoinCash, the task of identifying the amount in the line is also an impossible task. Line with wallet bitcoincash:qpk0689rt3xkzlw8ap4yy72amp2zpws6zujkcgavptconsidered true, but with the amount bitcoincash:qpk0689rt3xkzlw8ap4yy72amp2zpws6zujkcgavpt?amount=0.1 — "Invalid address" But there are applications that understand all such formats, or at least one of them. The string parsing function is pretty trivial and should not be a problem for the developer. This article has been written based on the experience of using the application of the members of our team (who have used it for many years) and our users. We encourage Blockchain.com to fix at least 3 of the 4 problems that we covered in this article. We still hope that the company will work on the bugs and will earn back trust of its users. In the meantime — use other applications! ;) The post is published on our blog:https://fixedfloat.com/blog/guides/how-blockchain-com-harms
Currently the 500 MCO tier is sort of the sweet spot for most users where a lot of valuable perks kick in. When I first purchased MCO it was under $3 USD, so going straight to the 500 tier was an obvious choice. I was planning to put some Stablecoins and Bitcoin into earn, so the added 2% bonus in-kind in earn, plus the 3% card cashbacks and Netflix reimbursement made the choice economically beneficial quite quickly. Less than a year later the benefits have provided me a larger return on investment than if I had done otherwise. I have been eyeing the upgrade to the 5000 tier, but I wanted to do an analysis of what sort of upgrade strategy makes sense to optimize ROI weighted against risks and if I'm even the right candidate for such an investment. With the price of MCO being higher, it's not such a clear decision. I will outline my thought process below. Assumptions - These are the assumptions that I am working with for my analysis. Working with a different set of assumptions will affect the decision making process differently for different people.
Decision making process involves only MCO, Stablecoins (Fiat), and Bitcoin
Bitcoin being held was bought at a low price and converting to MCO will cause a taxable event
There is no monetary benefit to Prime because I've been grandfathered into prime from an old family members account
There is no monetary benefit to Expedia because I do all my travel spending on my Chase Sapphire Reserve that offers robust travel benefits and protections.
The monetary benefit to CDC Private is not clear at the time
Time frame of one year
Interest rates on the platform do not drastically change over the next year
MCO and BTC change fluctuate roughly in lockstep
Dollar figures below are arbitrary for example purposes only
Based on the above assumptions we can now look at different upgrade pathways and see which options make the most sense. This thought process is a place to start and can be adjusted to each person's individual case.
Stablecoin (Fiat) to MCO pathway
At today's price of ~$4.85 USD at time of writing, it would cost $21,825 USD to upgrade directly into the 5000 tier by buying 4500 additional MCO. This gives additional benefits of 2% in earn, 1% on card, and 8% vs 6% on staked MCO. The variables we need to look at to find out if this makes sense over the next year are: assets in Earn and annual card spend. The opportunity cost of putting the money into MCO is a 4% yield on $21,825 (12% in Earn minus 8% staked in MCO) minus a 2% yield on 500 MCO, or roughly $824.50. We also open ourselves up to exchange rate volatility, there is a very real, non-0% chance that the crypto market collapses, or that MCO itself collapses in value. There is also a chance it will go way up. If you are looking to hold the MCO, or crypto in general, for longer periods of time, we need to sort of normalize the projected trend to figure out ROI. That means ignoring big jumps and drops, or retroactively thinking you could have made or lost money by trading in and out… that falls under trading and speculation. In general, most of us think the crypto market is going up, but by how much and how fast are variables that need to be considered in how exposed to crypto you want to be In order to make this pathway a positive ROI, we need to make an additional $824.50 through the added benefits in Earn and card spending over the course of one year. What does that look like?
Assets in Earn*0.02 + Card spend*0.01>824.50
Card spend: $1,000; Earn: $40,725
Card spend: $5,000; Earn: $38,725
Card spend: $10,000; Earn: $36,225
If you don't have roughly $35-40k in Earn, upgrading to 5000 Tier makes very little sense IMO. Full Account Examples (Assuming today's crypto prices):
Case 1 - 500 MCO staked; $100,000 Stablecoins in Earn; $100,000 Bitcoin in earn; $3000 card spend
500 * $4.85 * 0.06 = $145.50
$100,000 * 0.12 = $12,000
$100,000 * 0.055 = $5,500
$3,000 * 0.03 = $90
Total annual rewards: $17,735.50
Case 2 - 5000 MCO staked; $80,000 Stablecoins; $100,000 Bitcoin in Earn; $3000 card spend
5000 * $4.85 *0.08 = $1,940
$80,000 * 0.14 = $11,200
$100,000 * 0.075 = $7,500
$3,000 * 0.04 = $120
Total annual rewards: $20,760
Case 1 and 2 are very similar in total assets, but case 2 provides the better return after one year ($20,760 - $17,735.50 = $3,024.50) at the cost of being more exposed to crypto.
Bitcoin to MCO pathway via Drip
Another option to consider is upgrading to the 5000 tier via Bitcoin. I mention "Drip" in the header because I imagine most people able to do a lump sum conversion would encounter a taxable event and would be less inclined to go that route. Utilizing a drip format will upgrade on a longer time scale, but result in negligible taxable gain. It also keeps crypto exposure at roughly the same level throughout the process. The benefits from going to MCO from BTC is a higher interest rate for MCO being staked at 6% vs BTC in Earn at 5.5%; I also assume CDC will be able to keep the 6% on MCO longer than they can keep the rate high on BTC. The drawbacks are less liquidity on MCO, potentially more volatility, and potential loss of value relative to BTC in Satoshis (we'll ignore the last point since we are assuming a similar sat ratio over time). Another thing to mention, if we want to upgrade over the course of one year, BTC holdings need to be pretty sizable at $400,000 That's a little unreasonable for most people, so let's assume a smaller holding of $100,000 btc like the two cases above. This will take three years to accomplish and the equation gets a bit more complicated in this situation.
500 MCO staked at 6%
$100,000 BTC in Earn at 5.5%
Proceeds from both go immediately into MCO 3 Month Earn at 8%
Basically if you take the above situation and plug it into a compound interest calculator, compounding quarterly, it takes almost 3 years exactly to drip your way into the 5000 tier. We can mostly ignore any change in crypto USD value as long as the MCO/BTC ratio stays similar. If you definitely want to go to the 5000 tier, the question becomes purchase lump sum via Fiat or drip via crypto. The opportunity cost of dripping is the lost 2% gain in earn over the course of 3 years (which as you'll see below, could be significant if the market jumps quickly at which point purchasing via Fiat becomes prohibitively expensive). But the benefit is that you maintain your current crypto exposure in the case of a major bear market where you could potentially purchase via Fiat at a much lower price.
I think it's important to think about an exit strategy. In my opinion, upgrading to the 5000 tier only really makes sense if you are having a lot of assets in Earn. The added 1% on card spend and other perks pales in comparison to the added 2% on Earn with a large amount of assets. It's also my opinion that MCO should only be a small portion of a crypto portfolio. Regardless, if MCO is your main holding you are betting on the crypto market going up, because the added 5000 tier benefits won't comparatively amount to much over a year anyway. If crypto prices stay the same the benefits to holding MCO stay flat, but as crypto prices rise, the incentives change. Imagine we go on a huge bull run and the market goes up 20x. I bet a lot of people will want to rebalance and cash in some of that profit. It's quite possible holding 5000 MCO becomes too big of a risk for the benefits received. What's nice is that CDC seems to have thought about the optimal profile for people to get to the 5000 tier level...like I stated above, people with significant assets in Earn. Imagine the person in Case 2 above in an environment where the crypto market shoots up 20x.
5000 MCO = $500,000
$80,000 Stablecoins = $80,000
$100,000 BTC = $2,000,000
In this situation, it makes sense to rebalance your portfolio and take some earnings off the table. However, it actually makes a lot of sense to keep the 5000 MCO staked and rebalance away from BTC into Stablecoins. Look at the yearly earnings of different options below:
Leave as is: $191,200
Rebalance $450,000 from BTC to Stablecoins maintaining 5000 MCO tier: $220,450
Rebalance $450,000 away from MCO to Stablecoins dropping to the 500 MCO tier: $176,600
As you can see, losing the bonus 2% in earn cuts your profit over the course of a year. CDC was quite thoughtful in changing the award structure for the added 2% in Earn. It should keep early adopters from leaving if the market goes up, and should actually attract newly minted crypto whales as they rebalance out of other cryptos. This should keep the MCO price strong for a long time and give confidence to people investing in MCO.
I think upgrading to the 5000 tier can make a lot of sense for certain people. But after reaching the 5000 tier I would probably immediately cash out all rewarded MCO to Stablecoins to compound at a higher interest rate and just maintain the 5000 level. Unless there are some dramatic new rewards for the 50,000 level I don't see the value proposition to go for Black. Perhaps an additional 2% in Earn, but that is probably not sustainable to the company. Let me know what you think, or if I made any mistakes. Edit: Changed numbers to reflect 8% earned on staked MCO at the 5000 Tier level. This makes the upgrade more compelling.
08-17 08:25 - 'Is Bitcoin a virtual currency?' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Beneficial-Guitar-77 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 6-16min
''' I believe that you are relatively familiar with the currency, so today I will give you a chat, bitcoin is not a virtual currency? First of all, know about it. Bitcoin is a kind of digital currency in the form of P2P, which was first proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto. Point-to-point transmission means a decentralized payment system. , unlike most of the currency, the currency monetary authorities don't depend on the specific issue, it is according to the specific algorithm, through a lot of calculation, the currency economic use of the P2P network composed of many nodes in a distributed database to identify and record all transactions, and the use of cryptography security currency to ensure that each link of the design. The second is how to buy and invest bitcoin safely. In fact, there are a lot of cheaters, there are also a lot of pits, so still need to see other people's posts, more accumulation of experience, to participate in the discussion. You will make fewer mistakes, because the previous generation did not make fewer mistakes. IXX Exchange is a reliable APP that is the world's first digital asset trading community. It supports Bitcoin, Cardano, OMG, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Binance Coin and hundreds of other cryptocurrencies to meet the needs of all users. Advantages are probably rapid purchase, contract trading, safe clearing, trading efficiency, first-class service; More practical and comfortable. Safe buy is more important, also have a lot of forum can have relevant content, hope to be able to give everybody reference. Because of the innovation and scarcity of Bitcoin, many people are willing to invest a lot of money to dig mines or buy bitcoin directly. ''' Is Bitcoin a virtual currency? Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: Beneficial-Guitar-77
Beginner guide to Electrum on Testnet-LN allowing you to learn without cost.
I rewrote this post to clean it up a bit and add more context. The original can still be found here With the last few drops of Electrum it's been much easier to use LN. I've played around with Electrum-desktop on testnet. Everything worked great, and it is a great way to learn about channel capacity and invoices without having to put real money at risk. Electrum has a "swap" button to adjust capacity but I think it may be broken on testnet presently. There are a few ways to adjust capacity / liquidity that I'll discuss below.
Get Electrum running
Install Electrum 4.0.2 and run it on testnet enabling LN.
Open a channel in Electrum with either a known entity, or use their channel suggestion
Wait an hour or so for the channel to open.
Perform a submarine-swap operation to give you a 50/50 capacity
Wait for the swap to complete
LN channels have a (local) sending capacity and a (remote) receiving capacity. To verify your local/remote capacity click on the channel and view "Details". New channels default to 100%/0% local/remote capacity, meaning you can send, but not receive. There is also some rule that requires you to be below 90% local before you can receive anything. So if you need to receive payments on LN before you spend 10% of your local capacity you will need to find a way to balance local/remote. As mentioned before, the easiest is just to spend, but if you don't have anything to spend on there are some other options
Electrum Swap Button - Currently broken in testnet, but the intention is to provide an in-app ability to do a reverse_swap (LN to BTC) to allow you to pull some of your local capacity out of your channel giving you some balance. Normally you just hit the Swap button in the channel tab and follow instructions.
Use third party Swap site - The Boltz Exchange has a testnet swap service that is pretty simple to use. You can also use them on mainnet, though you really should calculate the fees by hand to know what your in for. Other mainnet services like FixedFloat, or lighting-labs loop are also popular choices
Push on Open Channel - If your opening a channel between nodes you own, you can use the electrum-cli to set a push_amt to push out of your channel to the remote node on open. This is the same as paying them some amount, just without an invoice. So make sure you only push to yourself, or those you actually owe money to.
Once you free up some receive capacity, you also need to ensure that your node is reachable. In the default config your node will not be publicly visible. Electrum will handle the last hop for you, but your sender still need to at least be able to route to one of the nodes you have receive capacity on. This may occationally fail causing "Path not found" errots when sending, or when others send to you. In the Electrum preferences there are some options to run local watchtowers and keep the app resident. This will help since your wallet needs to be running for it to receive payments. But even if you enable all options sometimes you will just end up on an isolated node. If this happens, take care to ensure you connect to nodes that are highly connected to others. If you want to test your visibility, just paste an invoice in this thread and hopefully someone can try to send you some tBTC-LN.
Weekly Review: Bitcoin price is targeting $ 25,000, PayPal is offering its 300 million customers BTC to buy?
https://preview.redd.it/co0tqa88b6d51.png?width=429&format=png&auto=webp&s=e41cd67a0765a375d51d2e05af38e68d9c9ed72d The silence in the Bitcoin price has been going on for 2-3 months after the digital gold initially recovered well from the slump in the course of the Corona crisis. Volatility is currently at a very low level that has not been seen since November 2018. As unspectacular as the current consolidation phase is, on the other hand, you have to recognize that the Bitcoin price has nevertheless increased by 29% since the beginning of the year. So far, BTC has beaten many other asset classes. But is there possibly more? The well-known crypto-analyst PlanB now calculates on Twitter that the current BTC price, measured by the correlation of the asset with the S&P 500 stock index, should actually be a proud $ 25,000. You can find out how he came up with this claim in this article.
YFI rate explodes - previously unknown cryptocurrency rises by over 14,000% in just a few days
The little-known cryptocurrency, YFI, is making many in the industry angry about why they're only now hearing about it. Because just a few days after its introduction, it has already increased by over 14,000%. The Santiment cryptanalysis platform recently analyzed the performance of YFI, the governance token of the decentralized finance (Defi) protocol.
Ripple wanted to give away his 55,000,000,000 XRP & why Stellar makes it look stupid
David Schwartz, Ripple's chief technology officer, recently spoke about managing the company's massive XRP inventory, which is often the subject of massive criticism. If you compare the management of XRP by the start-up from San Francisco with the handling of the digital asset Stellar Lumens (XLM) by the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), some questions remain unanswered.
Bitcoin course Pump powered by Tether? Why this narrative no longer works and BTC is still trading in a critical zone
The Bitcoin price has risen again in the past few days, bringing the BTC bulls back into the headlines. In this article, however, we want to show why the BTC course can still be enjoyed with caution. We'll also explain why Tether's recent surge in supply (USDT) is obviously not an indicator of fresh money flowing into Bitcoin.
Cardano will replace Ethereum - or not? So there are chances of a transfer
Cardano (ADA) has not only heard from the huge increase in prices in the past few weeks, but also through several updates. Many see Cardano as the Ethereum Killer, which is said to outshine the largest and best-known smart contract platform. But it is not as simple as some imagine.
Bitcoin bubbles repeat - a planned construct by Satoshi Nakamoto?
Most of us ended up in the crypto space due to the huge price increases of Bitcoin and Co. Again and again, Bitcoin price bubbles have led to increased attention towards cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Many burned their hands and left the crypto space again. Others have started to dig deeper into the nature of Bitcoin and have stayed. The deeper you dig, the more you understand what Bitcoin is and what effects it has on our financial world.
PayPal & Bitcoin rumor mill: does the payment giant offer its 300 million users crypto trading via Paxos?
The largest and most popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum could soon be integrated on the payment giant PayPal. Enthusiasm for PayPal integrating its cryptocurrency platform goes back to June. Origin of all speculation that cryptos like Bitcoin will soon be available on PayPal. Now the rumors seem to be coming true. This could actually be the biggest news in 2020
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
In this week's Mr Robot episode, Darlene sits on a park bench with Dom, and distributes the money she stole from the Deus Group to everybody, evenly. I timed the transaction as it happened in the show. It was 24 seconds, between her hitting return and seeing the following message on her screen: "*Transfers Complete. All Wallets Updated*" This processing time includes a message that says, "cleaning coins through crypto tumbler". It took 1 minute and 16 seconds for the transaction to tumble, process, and for the recipients to begin to get notices that they received money in their accounts. If you have worked with bitcoin, you know that cryptocurrency does not work like this. Transferring money is a slow and sometimes expensive process, as transaction fees eat into every transaction. I know that eCoin isn't necissarily bitcoin, because it's controlled by eCorp, but it's fun to think about what happens if eCoin works like bitcoin does today... How much money was transferred? According to Forbes, the most wealthy people in the world are worth a combined $8.7 trillion, or $2.7 trillion. It depends on which Forbes list you are looking at. On the actual Forbes web site, they say the richest people in the world are worth $8.7 trillion, but they do not state how many of the richest people in the world are worth that much. If you look at sites like Victor Media, they publish a table of the 100 most wealthy people, and say they got the list from Forbes. They probably did purchase the list from Forbes. If I put the Victor Media list into excel, and add all the values in the net worth column, that number comes out to $2.7 trillion. So Forbes might be talking about a list that is more than the top 100 people, and sell the top 100 people list to sites like Victor Media? I don't know. Either way, we are talking about somewhere between $2.7 and $8.7 trillion. How many people did the money go to? That's complicated. There was no global montage showing people celebrating all over the world (which I found a little surprising, even though I still love how this episode was shot). The only indication of a truly global transfer, to every individual in the world, is a TV screen in the airport saying that, "Global eCoin Payout... Deus group collapses as wealth spreads around the world." So Darlene could have sent the money to every individual with an eCoin wallet in the world, or she could be sending them to every American, or to everybody in the developed world. I doubt the average rice farmer in Indonesia is really using eCoin, but it's possible. If she only sent it to every American, our wealth tends to spread around the globe pretty fast, so that's possible, too. Lets work with World Bank population numbers for all three of these possibilities... World Population: 7.6 billion people Global North (AKA the developed world): 1.24 billion people United States: 327 million people So we have 6 possibilities for how much money was sent to each person...
Money Per Capita
How much would this transaction cost with bitcoin? Aside from the fact that eCoin probably functions differently than bitcoin, this is a very complex question. I'm definitely not as sure about these numbers as the other numbers I have, but I'll do my best to come up with useful, realistic numbers. If you are more familiar with the block chain than me, please correct me. The coins were taken from 100 different Deus Group accounts. Lets say each transaction launders through a bitcoin tumbler 1,000 times. I'm going to ignore transaction fees for the tumbling process, because I don't fully understand the details of tumbling, but 1,000 times seems reasonable to me. That means that there are 100 x 1,000 = 10,000 inputs in any transaction that spends all the money from the Deus group. For outputs... for simplicity's sake, I will make the conservative assumption that everybody has one eCoin wallet. That means somewhere between 327 million and 7.6 billion outputs. Accounting for everybody having multiple wallets would make the transaction even bigger, but this is a good starting point to get a feel for what this transaction would look like, in the real world. How long will this transaction take to process? There is a bidding process and a bit of politics involved in processing a cryptocurrency transaction. For simplicity, I'll assume we bid enough that this transaction gets priority treatment from the bitcoin miners. According to blockchain.com, transactions happen on the block chain at a rate of roughly 3.5 transactions per second. At that rate, the tumbling would take roughly 48 minutes, rather than the few seconds it took for Darlene to tumble this money. According to buybitcoinworldwide.com's fee calculator, here are the transaction sizes, the transaction fees involved (in US Dollars), and the time it would take at 3.5 transactions per second...
So this transaction would take years to go through, and it pays Evil Corp somewhere between $1.6 and $38 million. In the real world, most of that money would go to Chinese bitcoin miners. What would the impact be? A one time windfall of $327 per capita would probably not trigger hyperinflation in America. The largest payout we calculated was $26.5k, and I doubt that would cause hyperinflation, either. Regular inflation? Yes. Hyperinflation? Probably not. It might lead to hyperinflation in other countries, though, because of differences in purchasing power. Purchasing power parity is a number that describes the differences in the cost of goods and services around the world. $5 in America will buy you a big mac, but if you go to, say, Indonesia, you can buy a lot more with that $5, because Indonesia is full of people who make something like 25 cents a week. OECD.org publishes PPP (purchasing power parity) numbers for countries all around the world. If you want to know how far your dollar will stretch, on average, in a foreign country, consult this list. If you have $100 in America, you can expect it to be worth $100 worth of American goods and services, so on the OECD table, it has a PPP of 1.0. If you take that $100 to, say, the UK, where the PPP is 0.7, you can expect that $100 to be worth $70 worth of goods and services. If you take that $100 to Australia, where the PPP is 1.48, you can expect that $100 to buy roughly $148 worth of goods and services. If Elliot and Darlene were genius economists, I might expect them to account for PPP in their payout. They would have to be geniuses, to predict what PPP is doing after events like the 5/9 hack, because their best data would be out of date, so they would have to use all kinds of fancy regressions and tricks to figure out how that would work in such a volatile world economy. They definitely aren't economists, though, so I'll assume they sent the same nominal amount to everybody. So what's the range on how much purchasing power this transaction gives people around the world? In 2018, the highest PPP number on the OECD list is Indonesia, with a PPP of 4,245.613140. The lowest PPP on the list is Lithuania, with a PPP of 0.457582. Lets see how this shakes out in each of these countries...
$ Per Capita
What would this cause? People might predict a lot of different things. The Yang gang people probably strong opinions on this. I have a bachelor's degree in economics, so I believe I can predict that most mainstream economists would predict the following... In Lithuania, when they get a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, they probably raise a pint to F Society, then put the rest towards a house or car payment, or buy themselves something nice. Minor inflation would happen, probably starting at the pubs, and that would worry financial types, but it would not cause any kind of major economic catastrophe. In Indonesia, where everybody becomes an asset millionaire overnight, they will probably have hyperinflation, mass social upheaval, and violence. In conclusion... TL;DR: What Darlene did last night with eCoin isn't actually possible with bitcoin, and the impact in America might not be as great as you think, but the impact would be much bigger in poorer parts of the world.
Addressing Common Arguments For Limiting BTC's Block Size
For a while, I've seen many BTC maximalists bring up arguments about why the block size for Bitcoin should be limited to 1 MB. I have made this post to address most of these arguments. If you disagree, feel free to make your point in the comments!
Limiting block size is what helps keep nodes cheap, and helps decentralize Bitcoin.
Let's do some math here... With the block size of BTC being 1.00 MB, and having ~144 blocks a day, 365 days a year, there are roughly 52,560 blocks in a year. Using this data, 52.5 GB of storage will be used up in an entire year (we'll make the assumption that someone running a node buys 1 hard drive a year to store all this data). Looking at Amazon, the average cost for 64.0 GB of storage capacity for a flash drive is roughly $10.00. This means on average, someone running a node is paying roughly 80 cents per month for storage. Okay, now let's look at the internet aspect of things. The average internet speed globally is around ~75 Mbps (which is more than enough for both BTC and BCH) and will likely run for around ~$40 a month (this is a rough figure, and slightly pessimistic, but let's take it). Therefore, doing some math: ($40.00/month + $0.80/month) x 12 months = ~$490.00/year Okay, so it roughly costs $490.00 a year which is just a little over $1/day for running a node. Let's see how much more expensive BCH is when running the same type of node: For BCH, everything stays the same, except for storage costs. Since the block size is 32 times bigger than BTC, doing the math, BCH will take up roughly 1.7 TB of data. For a 2 TB hard drive, the cost is roughly $60. For an entire year, that will cost about $5 per month for storage. Taking this into consideration, we can calculate how much it will cost to run a BCH node for storage and internet: ($40.00/month + $5.00/month) x 12 months = ~$540.00/year So in conclusion:
As we can see, it really isn't that much more expensive, and this isn't even factoring in how much cheaper digital storage will become over time. As digital storage becomes bigger, we can also expand block size, and not have to worry about centralization.
The market has decided that BTC is better, therefore BCH is not Bitcoin.
While yes, based on hashing power, this is true, Bitcoin being Bitcoin is not about hashing power. It is about what Bitcoin was intended to do. Bitcoin was created by Satoshi as a form of peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Even in the whitepaper of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is not working the way it was intended to. From the whitepaper:
The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions.
It says it right here, one of the issues with current forms electronic payments is high transaction fees, and how they make small, everyday purchases expensive, making it bad for regular, everyday purchases. Currently, looking at the fees, BTC costs roughly $0.50 for every transaction (fees vary every single block, but this is the current average), regardless of the transaction amount. That means if I'm making a purchase at a coffee shop for $2.00, it is going to cost me $2.50 effectively for the coffee. That means that I am paying 25% of my transaction value just to transfer my own money. What incentive would I have to make that purchase, especially when I could just use normal cash, and not pay ridiculously high fees for a normal transaction? Let's compare this to BCH. Right now, the average fee for BCH is about $0.0025 for every transaction. When comparing that even to a $2 purchase, the fee is negligible and makes effectively no difference to the transaction amount. As we can see, BCH is far cheaper for everyday normal transactions, a.k.a. electronic cash.
Bitcoin only has high transaction fees because of the higher transaction volume, and Bitmain has spammed transactions to make BTC look bad.
As far as I know, I don't recall Bitmain spamming transactions on the network (I could be wrong on this). If someone has evidence of this, I will gladly retract this. As for transaction volume (number of transactions), we can use comparable numbers from when BCH and BTC were both having extremely high transaction volumes:
No. of transactions (BTC)
No. of transactions (BCH)
Average Transaction Fee (BTC)
Average Transaction Fee (BCH)
Note: The peak fees for both blockchains were $52.00 for BTC and $0.90 (which is still bad for BCH. The difference is that BCH has taken steps to ensure that kind of transaction fee would never happen again, even faced with the same amount of traffic on the network.)
The Lightning Network (an off-chain solution) is a better solution to Bitcoin's current problem than increasing the block size (an on-chain solution), and has a much higher transactions per second capability than BCH.
Yes, the Lightning Network may have a higher transaction per second capability when compared to BCH, but it comes at a cost: centralization. The aim of Bitcoin was to make a peer-to-peer electronic cash system with a high transaction per second capability, but it also is supposed to have 3 distinct properties to it. Bitcoin should also be:
Cheap (fees should be negligible, no matter how low the transaction amount)
When you take away any one of these characteristics, it becomes A LOT easier to make a currency with a higher transaction input capability, but it ignores the goal of what Bitcoin is supposed to be. For example, if you have a system of cash that is: Cheap and secure, but not decentralized: XRP (Ripple) Credit Cards Paypal Lightning Network Cheap and decentralized, but not secure: LTC (Litecoin) (DOGE) Dogecoin Plenty of other low-use altcoins Secure and Decentralized, but not cheap: BTC (Bitcoin) XMR (Monero) BCH manages to have all 3 characteristics, all while having a transaction capability of more than 200 transactions per second. Not to mention that setting up a node on the Lightning Network is a complicated, tedious, and painful process to go through, just to put your fund somewhere where they aren't safe (you risk losing your funds pretty easily, especially if you're an everyday person who doesn't have much knowledge when it comes to technology). Not only is this the case, but eventually the funds from the Lightning Network will have to be settled on the blockchain, and when adoption increases, the fees will increase as well, meaning that you will be charged a ridiculously high amount for withdrawing your own money. To add to this, nodes that are run by people with more resources will eventually become Lightning Hubs, meaning that they are the only few who you can go through to send a transaction to whoever you want. This makes Lightning Hubs the new intermediaries for financial transactions. Does this all sound familiar? It is literally banking right now, but with the name 'Bitcoin' slapped on top of it. Anyway, these are all the arguments I have heard from BTC maximalists. If you have any more arguments, feel free to comment them below, and I'm willing to change my mind if you make a good point.
Digital signatures are considered the foundation of online sovereignty. The advent of public-key cryptography in 1976 paved the way for the creation of a global communications tool – the Internet, and a completely new form of money – Bitcoin. Although the fundamental properties of public-key cryptography have not changed much since then, dozens of different open-source digital signature schemes are now available to cryptographers.
How ECDSA was incorporated into Bitcoin
When Satoshi Nakamoto, a mystical founder of the first crypto, started working on Bitcoin, one of the key points was to select the signature schemes for an open and public financial system. The requirements were clear. An algorithm should have been widely used, understandable, safe enough, easy, and, what is more important, open-sourced. Of all the options available at that time, he chose the one that met these criteria: Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, or ECDSA. At that time, native support for ECDSA was provided in OpenSSL, an open set of encryption tools developed by experienced cipher banks in order to increase the confidentiality of online communications. Compared to other popular schemes, ECDSA had such advantages as:
Low demand for computing resources;
Short key lengths.
These are extremely useful features for digital money. At the same time, it provides a proportional level of security: for example, a 256-bit ECDSA key has the same level of security as a 3072-bit RSA key (Rivest, Shamir и Adleman) with a significantly smaller key size.
Basic principles of ECDSA
ECDSA is a process that uses elliptic curves and finite fields to “sign” data in such a way that third parties can easily verify the authenticity of the signature, but the signer himself reserves the exclusive opportunity to create signatures. In the case of Bitcoin, the “data” that is signed is a transaction that transfers ownership of bitcoins. ECDSA has two separate procedures for signing and verifying. Each procedure is an algorithm consisting of several arithmetic operations. The signature algorithm uses the private key, and the verification algorithm uses only the public key. To use ECDSA, such protocol as Bitcoin must fix a set of parameters for the elliptic curve and its finite field, so that all users of the protocol know and apply these parameters. Otherwise, everyone will solve their own equations, which will not converge with each other, and they will never agree on anything. For all these parameters, Bitcoin uses very, very large (well, awesomely incredibly huge) numbers. It is important. In fact, all practical applications of ECDSA use huge numbers. After all, the security of this algorithm relies on the fact that these values are too large to pick up a key with a simple brute force. The 384-bit ECDSA key is considered safe enough for the NSA's most secretive government service (USA).
Replacement of ECDSA
Thanks to the hard work done by Peter Wuille (a famous cryptography specialist) and his colleagues on an improved elliptical curve called secp256k1, Bitcoin's ECDSA has become even faster and more efficient. However, ECDSA still has some shortcomings, which can serve as a sufficient basis for its complete replacement. After several years of research and experimentation, a new signature scheme was established to increase the confidentiality and efficiency of Bitcoin transactions: Schnorr's digital signature scheme. Schnorr's signature takes the process of using “keys” to a new level. It takes only 64 bytes when it gets into the block, which reduces the space occupied by transactions by 4%. Since transactions with the Schnorr signature are the same size, this makes it possible to pre-calculate the total size of the part of the block that contains such signatures. A preliminary calculation of the block size is the key to its safe increase in the future.
According to Binance, the current price of bitcoin is $.. How many Satoshis are in a bitcoin, exactly? Each bitcoin is equal to 100 million Satoshis, making a Satoshi the smallest unit of bitcoin currently recorded on the blockchain.. Think of the Satoshi as the “cents” part of bitcoin. But unlike a penny that represents 0.01 USD, Satoshi represents roughly 0.00000001 BTC — or bitcoin to ... What is a Satoshi? Each bitcoin (BTC) is divisible to the 8th decimal place, so each BTC can be split into 100,000,000 units. Each unit of bitcoin, or 0.00000001 bitcoin, is called a Satoshi. A Satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin. How many Satoshis are in a Bitcoin? There are 100,000,000 satoshi in a BTC. Each bitcoin is equal to 100 million Satoshis, making a Satoshi the smallest unit of bitcoin currently recorded on the blockchain. Think of the Satoshi as the “cents” part of bitcoin. But unlike a penny that represents 0.01 USD, Satoshi represents roughly 0.00000001 BTC — or bitcoin to its eighth decimal. Quickly and easily calculate how much your Satoshis are worth in bitcoin and USD. Each bitcoin is equal to 100 million Satoshis, making a Satoshi the smallest unit of bitcoin currently recorded on ... Satoshi is a structural part of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, which is one hundred millionth of bitcoin.Such small units facilitate transactions with BTC. The total structural component of 1 bitcoin (BTC) is equivalent to 1000 millibits (mBTC), 1,000,000 microbe (mkBTC) or 100,000,000 Satoshi.
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