The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not ... - Falkvinge on Liberty
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Bitcoin Cash Merchant Adoption Blitzkrieg - Day 1 - 4 Dec 2017
As many of you know, the Accept Bitcoin Cash initiative site has launched thanks to the hard working Accept Bitcoin Cash team. However it's not enough to rest on our laurels and post Vegeta memes all day hoping for the price to go up. We've got some major catching up to do. What we need to do is focus on massive merchant adoption. Bitcoin Cash is only useful as a store of value if you can actually buy things with it. The only way that happens is by letting merchants know that we want to pay them with Bitcoin Cash and that we're prepared to do so. Bitcoin Cash actually benefits from being a functional network, unlike Bitcoin Legacy with its high fees, congestion and Tab payment mechanism which is always 18 months away. Bitcoin Cash has a lot of good selling points, even more so than most other cryptocurrencies if you actually research their fundamentals. Any merchants currently supporting BTC should be able to support Bitcoin Cash with a few tweaks to their software. So the plan is each day we have a new merchant/service/exchange we want to target together in a coordinated campaign. We can start with some of the biggest global ones first so the network effect grows faster. All we need to do is send one tweet each asking them to support Bitcoin Cash. It will only take a few seconds of your time. We need everyone involved, some have more Twitter outreach and influence than others. Don't just sit on the sideline and watch, get involved too. You want your Bitcoin Cash to grow in value too, right? Our critics call us "coffee coin" so let's try getting a major cafe chain onboard. To kick things off, I thought we could start off with Starbucks. I like a nice ice cold frappuccino as much as the next guy (and my waistline shows it). Next time we can do Amazon, Netflix, Uber, Lamborghini, Newegg, airlines, online services etc, whatever you like. Feel free to post suggestions for next time in the comments. I don't even need to be running the show here. With Bitcoin Cash everyone's the CEO. If I haven't posted the daily thread by 00:00 UTC due to work, travel etc feel free to copy the template and post it yourself. Here's our plan for today:
Register for a Twitter account if you don't already have one (remember to confirm your email).
Click on the Twitter icon for Starbucks and send them a tweet or alternatively send them a message on Facebook. If you were really keen and have plenty of free time on your hands you could email them. Feel free to change up the message to add your own reasons why they should support Bitcoin Cash. Let's keep all communications genuine and professional though to keep a good impression.
Optionally report back here when you've tweeted.
In the future Starbucks or whoever else add support for Bitcoin Cash, go buy something with Bitcoin Cash to show your support. I know Bitcoin Legacy has a "HODL at all costs" culture, but if we want Bitcoin Cash to be accepted everywhere and deprecate the banking system then we all need to actually use it for payments. For me personally I will do a bit of long term saving and spending. I'll try save up a certain amount long term for retirement, save up another amount and cash out that amount for a house one day, maybe another portion for a car and the rest I'll set aside for spending. You can come up with your own strategy like buying a small amount each month with your paycheck. Once more merchants start coming on board we can also make an issue or Pull Request to keep the site up to date. This will be the go-to site to know who is currently accepting Bitcoin Cash and where you can go to spend it. If you don't see a merchant or service on there feel free to add it too. The more the merrier.
Bitcoin Volatility: There are no bubbles, only tsunamis to come.
Hello Bitcoiners. I've been watching from the sidelines for awhile now and figured it is time to jump in the pool. I wanted to make a splash, so I decided to share my shocking epiphany on the volatility of Bitcoin.
Where I'm coming from
I believe Bitcoin's biggest hurdle will be that of government regulation but, at the same time, aided by other country's resentment of the PetroDollar and world reserve status the US dollar maintains. I believe in the mechanics and game theory of Bitcoin. I think it will succeed in taking over significant portions of the global economy because of its frictionless nature. I subscribe to the idea that bitcoin will either be worth zero, or very large amounts of money in the long run. It is just a matter of time while the general population learns to trust it as a store and transfer of value. Developers will do what they do and make it easier to use and overcome well known limitations of storage and bandwidth.
And then it came to me
With that, I would like to present some shock and awe that many people will struggle to comtemplate as the success of Bitcoin takes off: Price Volatility. There are three components that need to be considered: The scarce, fixed monetary units; The percentage of global markets bitcoin will capture; And a time frame. With these, you can begin to understand the staggering volatility that awaits us on the path to world adoption. Due to the limited monetary units of Bitcoin, there is but one other parameter to tune to make Bitcoin a functional, competitive global currency - and that is the exchange rate. Multiply the exchange rate by the monetary units and you get the total monetary potential of the currency. As of today, that's about 1.6 billion dollars of economic potential. That is it. If Bitcoin is to adopt respectable portions of the black market, gambling, remittance, and online commerce, the required target market cap must be in the trillions. And, again, the only way to get there, because of the fixed monetary units, is the exchange rate. For Bitcoin to have a trillion dollars market potential, even after the maximum number of monetary units have been created, will be almost $50,000 per bitcoin. Now the question you are tasked to answer is: How long will it take bitcoin to reach a trillion dollar market capitalization? If we use the adoption rate of a similar technology, email, we can see that it took about 30 years. If we apply the same rate of adoption to Bitcoin and a potential trillion dollar market, we get an astounding figure.
Wait for it...
If, for a potential trillion dollar market you require each bitcoin to be valued at $50,000, and it will take 30 years to get to that value, we must expect, on average, the bitcoin value to rise approximately $140 a month. It sounds ridiculous, but do the math: $50,000 / (12 * 30) = $138.88. Edit for emphasis:And this rate will not be linear - it will be wildly volatile! But that is the average increase over 30 years and there is no escaping the simple math behind it. I recall someone once say that Bitcoin's biggest burden is its "too good to be true" properties. Nobody wants to hear your lies of instant global transfers that cost nothing and the indestructible money can't even be seized by governments - because its impossible and if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. But there you have some hard numbers to run for yourself. How would you change the numbers to breech the cognitive dissonance you're currently experiencing that prevents you from believing an average increase of $140 is a month a real possibility? I would like to thank Rick Falkvinge for his contribution of inspiration to this recent epiphany.
At long last, we're excited to present to the Ethereum community the release version of our whitepaper, including plans for our token sale now scheduled for November 1st at 3pm UTC. We've been banging on pots and pans since January that we intended Arcade City to be the decentralized, Ethereum-based answer to Uber. In April we laid out our multi-stage path to complete decentralization over time, then announced plans to submit a DAO proposal - oops! - and just recently added a crew of experienced Ethereum developers who've built a functioning Ethereum ridesharing prototype in record time. In the meantime we've made substantial progress 'on the ground' in cities all over the world, with our flagship ridesharing network in Austin giving tens of thousands of safe rides in a completely decentralized manner. Now we're ready to combine our decentralized organizational model with the solid decentralized tech that can propel our project further into the mainstream. Responding to your questions and comments below will be our 7-person ‘City Council’, as well as a few other folks who’ve been involved with Arcade City thus far. Our Reddit usernames are included in the Team Bios section below.
Arcade City is a decentralized global community of peer-to-peer service providers and consumers. The core technical offering is an Ethereum-based app for web, Android and iOS. Arcade City features an open ecosystem with forthcoming APIs to enable developers and entrepreneurs to easily create their own apps and service offerings as part of the Arcade City network. Initial service offerings focus on the ridesharing industry, with plans in motion for peer-to-peer deliveries and short-term home rentals. Arcade City aims to reinvent the sharing economy by combining the power of blockchain technology, open-source development, platform cooperativism, and a decentralized ‘swarm’ organizational model open to all.
A hackathon, you say?
Assuming our token sale sells out by the end of November, we'll be throwing an online hackathon open to any Ethereum developers, with a minimum of $100K USD value in prizes, payable in ETH or ARC. We'll announce super final details about start and end dates, judges and such, after the sale, potentially as soon as the first week of November. The basic idea of the first hackathon will be to build out the functionality described in the Arcade City Infrastructure section of the whitepaper: the offers, disputes, guilds, referrals, reputation, and assurance systems, with a likely priority on the reputation system. We intend to crowdsource the majority of our Ethereum development via multiple hackathons with everything open-source on GitHub. Check out the eye-popping revenue projectons in our whitepaper! Then imagine the majority of that revenue flowing into the Ethereum community by way of incentive prizes to accelerate the decentralization of the sharing economy...
** Christopher David (MillennialChris) - Mayor ** Christopher David founded Arcade City in December 2015. A former Uber driver, Chris initially envisioned Arcade City as a decentralized, driver-run competitor to Uber. As a blockchain enthusiast and proponent of radical decentralization, Chris was the first to recognize the larger potential of Arcade City as an unstoppable engine of mass peer-to-peer transactions across countless industries and countries all over the world. Using skills acquired during years of grassroots political organizing, he led the growth of Arcade City from an idea into a global movement on a shoestring budget. After much trial and error, he somehow managed to attract an amazing team of talented visionaries passionate to fulfill on the greater vision of Arcade City to ‘decentralize all the things'. Chris has a bachelors degree in international relations, a black belt in tang soo do, and a really loud mouth. And he thinks you should read Swarmwise and Freedom(tm). ** Jennifer Williams (ArcadeCityJenny) - Vice Mayor ** is a founding member of the Arcade City Swarm and has served as the Director of Support since February 2016. She contributes on a full-time basis to expanding operations globally with the other founding members. Together they give new members the necessary tools and resources needed to efficiently and effectively navigate the Arcade City ecosystem. Her primary motivation is to guide, educate and liberate individuals by making information accessible through email, social media, and the Arcade City Help Desk that she designed. After her studies in graphic design and holding several corporate managerial positions she decided to exit the proverbial ‘hamster wheel’ and pursue her entrepreneurial goals which led her to ridesharing. Jennifer has 2.5 years of rideshare experience, has mentored 400+ new drivers, and served as a marketing coordinator, brand ambassador and recruiter, which has given her extensive knowledge of the industry. Through her work with Arcade City she has gained interests and insights into cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies, and she believes that implementing the latest technologies will help Arcade City supercede the ridesharing competitors by eliminating the middlemen and allowing drivers to earn fair wages and build stronger communities while saving riders from price gouging. ** Lauren Slade (ArcadeSlade) - City Manager ** Lauren Slade is an accomplished operations and support professional with over four years of direct experience providing tactical strategies ranging from small startups to large scale teams operating globally. As a forward thinking tech leader she believes in pairing laser-focused user observation with a great amount of drive to constantly improve ways of operating as the most definitive route to unstoppable success. Lauren is steadfast and committed to collaboratively solving meaningful problems with a team who values getting things done. She joined Arcade City full-time in June of 2016 to direct the V2 integration of decentralized management systems and develop operational growth processes. Lauren looks forward most to ensuring Arcade City becomes a self-sustaining business model, free of a central governing council from the top down. Her passion for process-minded management and developing teams inspires her to successfully scale and balance hyper growth within talent and project recruitment. As a natural planner she enjoys getting down to the detail on performance and tracking metrics. ** Kristien De Wachter (kikipluche) - City Planner ** Kristien De Wachter has over 10 years of experience in project management and operations. In the beginning of 2015 she reinforced A-Labs, the City’s digital innovation lab. As lead of A-Labs, making the bridge between experiments and the “outside world”, tackling all problems that obstruct the way towards a good end-product, making sure all team members can work and think freely towards the common goals. Working on decentralization for more than a year. She joined forces with Arcade City on the 23th of September, as a liaison between the dev team in Antwerp and the swarm and swarm leaders, making sure all the cats run in the same direction, always with respect for everyone’s individuality and strengths. Believes Arcade City will bring freedom to every individual. ** Stefaan Ponnet (sponnet) - Engineer ** Stefaan has 15 years of experience in software development, design and architecture. He managed a software company for 6 years and worked for large companies as well as emerging start-ups. Interested in the possibilities of decentralized systems, he was an early Ethereum follower. Since september 2015 Stefaan has been full-time involved in developing Ethereum prototypes for government in the city of Antwerp. Stefaan has a passion for open source methodology and loves to solve technological problems. Stefaan and the Antwerp team joined Arcade City in September 2016 by publicly pledging our support to the community. Stefaan will add his expertise by developing all necessary building blocks - like Smart Contracts , Dapps, APIs, and anything else needed to make this new economy a reality. ** Michael Thuy (kingflurkel) - System Architect ** Michael Thuy has been studying and working on decentralized technology for the past 2 years, mostly from within the City of Antwerp's digital innovation lab 'A-Labs'. In the past year he has been working on concepts like Blocktube and Locals World. From a strong ideological and technical background he manages to mash up cutting edge technology to come up with all-round concepts. Meeting Arcade City, he felt he had no other purpose in life than to contribute to Arcade City's swarm. Michael is co-authoring the Arcade City whitepapeconcept and building on the PolymeEthereum prototype. With Arcade City, Michael wants to make sure his kids grow up in a different economic model than he did. He also would like Arcade City to be the de facto economic model on Mars. ** Ben Adriaenssen (Ben_AC) - Brand Architect ** Ben Adriaenssen after finishing his studies in ‘Visual Arts - Graphic Design’ found that working in advertising agencies or graphic studios was not fulfilling his strong urge to do something good for the world and the people in it. Applying his skill-set to communicate about random services or products wasn’t enough; he wanted to make a difference. Working for the City of Antwerp was a big step in this direction. While starting and working in the City of Antwerp's digital innovation lab 'A-Labs', his lifelong passion for creating digital interactive things has been reignited. Focusing on blockchain-technology was another big step to combining the love for design with the passion for people. Ben is thrilled to be able to contribute his value to a project like Arcade City. Working in this innovative decentral way, with like-minded people in a swarm structure, is for Ben a dream come true. He hopes Arcade City can put the power, literally and figuratively, back into the hands of the common man.
We could go on...
But to keep this to a somewhat manageable length, we'll stop here and answer any questions. How can we earn your support?
As such, you’ll commonly find him on Twitter making new price predictions based on the Bitcoin boom’s momentum. For now, he’s pegging his short-term bitcoin price target at $15,000. That’s a reasonable figure, to be sure, especially with BTC’s parabolic price performance in Q3 and Q4 2017. Może dlatego, że złoto trudniej wyprodukować niż USD.Niektórzy sugerują, że kurs BTC może w perspektywie miesięcy czy lat poszybować do 1000 dolarów czy więcej…falkvinge.net – target value for bitcoin […] Rick Falkvinge believes it’s reasonable for bitcoin to capture 1% to 10% of the global investor market. “This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. Rick Falkvinge on why Bitcoin BCH is true driver of digital currency. ... patterns of discussion begin to emerge. On the one hand, the Bitcoin BTC community has a propensity to discuss price, almost to the point of being obsessed with how the value changes from one minute to the next or how to make the biggest return on a BTC investment. On the ... Rick Falkvinge believes it’s reasonable for bitcoin to capture 1% to 10% of the global investor market. “This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations.
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